The Scottish Play Turns Bloody

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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Good morning I’m ending Stephen’s holiday week to bring you today’s edition, full of drama at Holyrood.

Humza is betting on his future

Who is the most powerful politician in Scotland? Well, as of yesterday it is no longer First Minister and Scottish National Party leader Humza Yousaf, but a member of the supporting cast in last year’s battle for the position. Ash Regan, an MSP who lost the leadership contest in spring 2023 and defected to Alex Salmond’s breakaway Alba party, now plays a crucial role.

At the time, the victorious Yousaf, seen as the natural successor to Nicola Sturgeon, said Regan would be “no great loss”. Now he has pulled the plug on his governing coalition with the Scottish Greens (it seems to have been more about dumping them than being their buyers – they were unimpressed by the abandonment of the net zero pledge last week). That means he faces a vital vote of no confidence in the Scottish Parliament and his survival depends on the decision of a single MP – yes, you guessed it, Ash Regan.

She has sent him a list of demands that he cannot politically give in to – an offer he must refuse in order to take over the old Mafia line – and the entire political world sits back and marvels at the drama.

“How does he survive now? “He’s made a total shit of himself,” marveled a constitutional expert I spoke to last night – who pointed out that unlike Westminster, where conventions and customs determine political outcomes, Holyrood is bound by the Scotland Act 1998, which governs everything on one sets legal basis.

If a motion of no confidence in the government were defeated, it would have to result in a letter of resignation to the king and a full MSP election. But the motion of no confidence in the First Minister, introduced by Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, is slightly different – ​​“it has no legal effect but is not politically viable,” this expert told me. All opposition parties will support the Tories’ motion of no confidence in the Scottish Parliament next week, as our Scotland correspondent Simeon Kerr explains in an article full of “raw” emotion – and Humza’s departure from the Greens means he no longer has a majority. Regan’s vote will be decisive. Oops.

Observers expect Kate Forbes, the former SNP finance minister under Sturgeon, to make another attempt at the SNP leader election, which now looks likely, following her defeat by Yousaf just over a year ago. But as someone told me, despite its many electoral successes, the party is “not overflowing with talent.” Forbes’ religious beliefs (she is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, sometimes referred to as the Wee Frees, the Presbyterian sect that rejects the theory of evolution and many other newfangled modern concepts) would mean that every interview “begins with a question about dinosaurs “. or gay marriage.”

And here’s another catch: Yousaf’s role as First Minister was accepted after he won the party leadership last year because the deal with the Greens made it automatic – he faced no opposition. Now an opposition member could stand against his successor.

The further effects? Labor, recovering north of the border after near-politics in 2015, will be pleased that the long-running SNP implosion increases the chances of a good night in this year’s election for Westminster seats. But Keir Starmer and Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar should not become too complacent. As this Ipsos report shows in detail, despite a series of disasters and scandals worthy of even the most caffeinated Netflix writers’ room, the SNP’s support has managed to remain well above the 30s – levels that the Tories enjoy at a national level can only dream A governing party with problems. A proportion of independence supporters are likely to vote for Labor this year, Scottish political observers say, but with support for independence then remaining stable, where it has always been, the next Holyrood election in 2026 can be expected to be one entirely become a different story. “As soon as Starmer disappoints them, it will be back to the independence debate: then rinse and repeat.” Politics: What’s not to love?

No possibility of running a railway

Labor’s reluctance to release detailed policy plans was abandoned this week when Shadow Transport Secretary Louise Haigh announced a new Labor government would renationalise the railways. The political advantages are clear: it is popular and even supported by parts of the electorate who would not have dreamed of voting for the party when Jeremy Corbyn was leader (as stated in the 2019 Labor manifesto) . This interactive YouGov page lets you test over time who feels strongly for and against – and it’s fun.

The disadvantages for Labour? Well, it may not offer lower rates or more reliable service, and the money won’t be passed around, as it currently is, among the complex web of companies and bodies responsible for running the network. It will end up on Haigh’s desk. Plus the cost. And a Tory party claims there is a direct link (sorry, pun intended) straight from the last Labor manifesto to the next.

During the Corbyn years, FT producer extraordinaire Tom Hannen and I made a short video: “Why did Britain sell the railways?” We found that even the Tory ministers who were involved in privatizing the Major government, didn’t think this was the right way – Sir Malcolm Rifkind told us it was “irrational, economically bad and business-minded”. And an internal government document we dug up was pretty blunt: the regional monopolies were created as a “political ploy” to win local approval rather than create competition. “Imagine capitalism,” as Michael Portillo admitted to me in the film.

Try it now. . .

Call me obsessive, but this week I enjoyed all 472 minutes of the BBC’s nighttime television footage of the 1997 general election (available on iPlayer in two episodes). It is an absolute joy to relive the excitement of that historic night – the electorate didn’t speak, they screamed. Great moments include a very fresh Peter Mandelson, in the early hours of the morning, trying out lines that his boss Tony Blair would use the next day (“We were elected as New Labour, we will govern as New Labour”), and the ” “Champagne Socialists” Ken and Barbara Follett, who failed to open a magnum on camera after being newly elected MP for Stevenage. Now you can “Be Ready for Portillo” at an hour of your choosing.

Top stories today

• Sparks fly | The Stellantis boss has criticized the UK for its “terrible” electric vehicle policy. Carlos Tavares said the quota rule, which requires manufacturers to meet annual electric vehicle sales targets, would mean automakers would have to sell vehicles at a loss to avoid fines.

• England tops survey on underage drinking | England has the highest alcohol consumption among school children, according to a World Health Organization study of more than 40 countries. The survey found that more than half of 13-year-olds in England have drunk alcohol, as have a third of all 11-year-olds.

• Waiting game | An FT analysis has shown that waiting times are now more than twice as long as when Rishi Sunak’s party entered Downing Street in 2010. In May 2010 the average waiting time for NHS patients was 5.5 weeks. The median was 14.8 in February this year and was two weeks worse or higher in 59 Tory seats, the analysis found.

Below you will find the latest updated Financial Times UK poll, which brings together voting intention polls published by major UK pollsters. Visit the FT poll tracker page to discover our methodology and explore poll data by demographic, including age, gender, region and more.