Bangkok, Thailand – Singapore has responded to United Nations pressure with a crackdown on arms sales through its territory to Myanmar, dealing a major blow to the embattled generals who seized power in a coup more than three years ago.
Thomas Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, told Al Jazeera that the city-state’s government responded “immediately” to his 2023 report that found Singapore-based companies were the third largest source of Weapons material for the military was “critical” for weapons procurement.
“My subsequent report to the Human Rights Council found that exports of arms materials from Singapore to Myanmar had fallen by 83 percent,” Andrews said. “This is a significant step forward and an example of how governments can make a difference for those at risk in Myanmar.”
Singapore’s crackdown has increased the cost for army chief Min Aung Hlaing and his forces at a time when they are facing unprecedented battlefield disasters – struggling to suppress resistance to their rule at home and failing to oppose a coalition ethnic minorities and majorities to fight back against Bamar resistance forces that have driven the military out of the border areas with Thailand, China and India.
Analysts see it as a sign of the generals’ increasing desperation that they have passed a sweeping conscription law to bolster their ranks.
Andrews’ 2023 report, “The Billion Dollar Death Trade,” provided details of more than $1 billion worth of arms and material shipments to Myanmar’s ruling generals, officially called the State Administration Council (SAC). The report revealed that 138 Singapore-based firms were involved in the transfer of weapons materials worth $254 million to the SAC in 2021-22. Unlike the sections on China, Russia and India, the companies were not named.
In response, Singapore’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the government appreciated Andrews’ efforts to “provide information to support Singapore’s investigation into whether offenses have been committed under Singapore law.”
It added that the country has taken a “principled position against the Myanmar military’s use of lethal force against unarmed civilians and has worked to prevent the flow of weapons into Myanmar.”
At least 4,882 civilians were killed, and the military has been accused of war crimes through the use of air power and attacks on civilians, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which has tracked casualties.
“Singapore has been quietly tightening the screws on Myanmar,” said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, DC. “While they could do more, Singapore deserves a lot of credit for quietly putting pressure on the country over the past year exercised military rule.
“Singapore was the main financial conduit for Myanmar for decades. The junta and its cronies now face a much less permissive environment, forcing them to reroute their transactions through other jurisdictions. It doesn’t stop financial flows, but it creates new costs.”
Power to disrupt
In his most recent follow-up report to the UN Human Rights Council, Andrews noted that there was no evidence that the Singaporean government was aware of the transfers taking place.
He also described how, after the 2023 results were released and after diplomatic efforts, the Singapore government launched an investigation into the results and welcomed Andrews to the city-state, where he provided further information to support the investigation.
After the US imposed sanctions on Myanma Foreign Trade Bank and Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank on June 21, 2023, the Monetary Authority of Singapore also gave UOB and other banks in Singapore the green light to stop managing Myanmar-linked accounts .
Myanmar’s Government of National Unity (NUG), founded by lawmakers from Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy who were ousted in the coup, said Singapore’s intervention had significantly limited the generals’ procurement abilities.
“Singapore’s actions have highlighted the power of ASEAN members to stop the Myanmar military junta’s acts of terrorism against their own people by denying them access to weapons, funding and legitimacy,” said NUG Cabinet Minister Sasa.
“Every bullet and every dollar provided to the junta results in more death, destruction, pain and suffering for the people of Myanmar.”
Sasa called on other countries within the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to help end Myanmar’s “reign of terror,” stressing that removing the generals from power would undermine not only the stability and prosperity of the region but the world would benefit.
“The catastrophic crisis caused by the junta in Myanmar has already spread across international borders, impacting ASEAN and our neighboring countries. If the junta continues with its forced recruitment laws, it will only deepen the crisis and lead to further instability in the region,” the minister told Al Jazeera.
The military regime is currently under enormous pressure after losing hundreds of military outposts in northern states and several key cities along the Chinese border and in western Rakhine State due to advances by anti-coup forces.
An alliance of ethnic Karen and anti-coup fighters has also forced the military to withdraw from the strategic town of Myawaddy on the Thai border.
According to Andrews’ 2023 report, Russia and China remain the military’s top suppliers of advanced weapons systems, costing more than $400 million and $260 million, respectively, since the coup. During Armed Forces Day last month, Alexander Fomin, Russia’s deputy defense minister, was once again the guest of honor as many countries decided to boycott the occasion.
To further crack down, Al Jazeera understands that Andrews is investigating how the SAC accesses the global financial system to recoup foreign revenue and procure weapons.
Regional measures required
The humanitarian crisis triggered by the coup – according to UN estimates, more than 2.5 million people have fled conflict and insecurity since February 2021 – has put Southeast Asian countries under increasing pressure for failing to respond effectively to the crisis, or Min Aung Hlaing can hold back.
ASEAN, which Myanmar joined in 1997, is divided between countries that want to take a harder line, including Singapore, and countries that want engagement, such as Cambodia.
Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin told Reuters this week that it was a good time to start talks with Myanmar as the SAC was “losing strength.”
The Thai leader’s intervention came as it emerged that Thailand had allowed the military to fly home government officials, military officers and their families who had left Myawaddy via Thailand.
The increasingly embattled and isolated SAC began mandatory conscription amid battlefield casualties and reports of desertions.
Security analyst Anthony Davis recently wrote that the Army “almost certainly includes around 70,000 soldiers, supported by militarized police and militia units organized under a unified command structure.”
Activist group Justice for Myanmar called on Singapore to speed up prosecutions to hold Myanmar military arms dealers accountable for violations of export controls and deter others seeking to profit from the trade, wherever they are.
“We welcome the steps Singapore has taken to disrupt the junta’s arms dealers, but the government must do much more to block the junta’s access to funds, weapons, equipment and jet fuel.” It is unacceptable that there are still notorious Myanmar cronies operating and even living in Singapore, and Singapore has still not imposed sanctions on the junta and its companies, unlike the sanctions against Russia [over Ukraine]said the group’s spokesman, Yadanar Maung.
But even if the Singapore route is under pressure, Maung fears that traders will find alternative shipping routes.
One such country could be Thailand. Andrews’ report noted that companies operating there were already involved in supplying spare parts for advanced weapons systems, raw materials and production equipment to the SAC’s weapons factories.
“There are signs that Thailand is an increasingly popular destination for cronies and arms traffickers, and this will undoubtedly remain so unless there is coordinated international action against the junta,” Maung told Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera has contacted the Singapore Embassy in Yangon for comment.