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Iran’s attack on Israel could impact Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Iran is an important arms supplier and economic partner of Russia.
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A broader Middle East conflict could also strengthen China’s regional influence at Russia’s expense.
Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday is not only bad for the Middle East, but also for Russia’s war in Ukraine, as new fault lines emerge between Moscow and Tehran.
Michelle Grisé, senior policy researcher at RAND, an American think tank, described in a commentary how a major conflict in the Middle East could affect Russia. The commentary was first published in The National Interest magazine on April 11, days before Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on April 13.
Grisé’s article followed an April 1 attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, but Iran held it accountable and vowed to retaliate.
“Although it has been argued that Moscow is profiting from chaos in the Middle East and diverting Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, it stands to lose much if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a larger war,” Grisé wrote.
Russia has been establishing itself as a military and diplomatic player in the Middle East for years.
Moscow took advantage of the instability in Syria and Libya to establish itself as a regional security guarantor, but an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would not have the same effect, Grisé wrote.
This is partly because Moscow is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, Grisé wrote. Russia’s partnership with Iran has also deepened in the past two years as Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy has become increasingly isolated.
Iran is now an important military supplier to Russia. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, an Iranian “ghost fleet” has also been transporting Russian oil around the world, ensuring that Moscow’s oil revenues flow.
However, if Iran were to become embroiled in a major conflict, it would not be able to provide the same level of support to Russia.
“A broader regional conflict, particularly if it is a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, would limit Iran’s ability to continue to act as a military supplier to Russia,” Grisé wrote.
Additionally, “Tehran may demand more support when Russia has limited capacity to provide it,” she added.
The Group of Seven (G7) is already considering additional sanctions against Iran following its attack on Israel – which could spill over into Russia.
“We will consider additional sanctions against Iran, in particular with regard to its drone and missile programs, in close cooperation with our partners,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement on Sunday.
A broader Middle East conflict could strengthen China’s influence in the region at Moscow’s expense
Although Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has still managed to position himself as a potential power broker in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war.
But Putin’s plan could fail if the war spills into the region, as Beijing also pushes to take on the role of peacemaker.
“Russia would be particularly sensitive to Chinese attempts to impact its influence in the Middle East,” Grisé wrote in her commentary.
This is especially true since Beijing managed to deliver results and negotiate détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023, Grisé added.
With Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy already dependent on China, it would be even more exposed to Beijing’s whims should Moscow be unable to maintain even a shred of global influence it still has.
In a statement on Sunday, the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed “extreme concern” about “further dangerous escalation” in the region.
The Russian Foreign Ministry called for restraint and said it expects states in the region to “resolve the existing problems through political and diplomatic means.”
Read the original article on Business Insider