BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez left Spain in uncertainty after announcing he might resign over what he said was an “unprecedented” smear campaign against his wife.
Sánchez, in office since 2018, stunned the nation on Wednesday by announcing that he would cancel all official events until next week, when he would unveil his future plans. The announcement came hours after a Madrid provincial judge agreed to investigate corruption allegations made by a right-wing group against Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez.
Here’s what you need to know about the potential political crisis in the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy and how it could play out:
WHAT’S NEXT
The big question is what the 52-year-old Sánchez – one of Europe’s longest-serving socialist leaders – will do next Monday. His likely options are:
— Resignation: If Sánchez resigns, it will fall to Spain King Felipe VI to consult with the leaders of parties in the lower house of Parliament to see whether a politician can muster the necessary support to form a new government. Sánchez’s party may well remain in office, but none of his colleagues have his charisma and respect.
— Confidence vote: Sánchez could face a confidence vote from the lower house, which he could win with a simple majority given the support he already enjoys. This could be a strategic move ahead of important regional elections in the Spanish region of Catalonia in May and in Europe in June.
– Early elections: Sánchez could announce early elections, but parliament could not be dissolved before May 29 to comply with a constitutional mandate that requires a year to elapse between dissolution of parliament by the prime minister.
All three options would likely put major legislative projects on hold, including a controversial plan to recognize the state of Palestine, an agreement with Britain on the status of Gibraltar after Brexit and a law granting amnesty to Catalan separatists who pushed an illegal secession in 2017 .
THE LETTER
Sanchez’s four-page letter explained that he needed time to think about his future. It was the first time a prime minister had done this in Spain.
The letter surprised many political observers because of its intimate, emotional content for a leader who exudes cool confidence and, in European style, keeps his wife and two daughters out of the spotlight.
“This attack is unprecedented, it is so serious and gross that I have to stop and think about it with my wife,” he said. “Most of the time we forget that politicians are people. And I don’t blush when I say it, but I am a man deeply in love with my wife, who lives with the feeling of powerlessness while mud is thrown at her.”
Sánchez was able to form a new left-wing coalition government in November to begin another four-year term with the support of countless small and regional parties from across Spain. He has been persecuted and vilified by right-wing opponents and much of the media before and since last July’s elections. The leading opposition People’s Party, which won the most seats in the election, accuses him of making deals with separatist parties just to stay in office.
In the past, Spain’s right-wing parties launched similar campaigns against former Socialist Party prime ministers such as Felipe González and José Luís Rodriguez Zapatero.
THE PROBE
Hours before Sánchez dropped his letter, a Spanish judge agreed to examine corruption allegations against Gómez made by a private group that has filed lawsuits in the past, primarily on far-right grounds. The complaint is based on news reports. On Thursday, the Madrid regional prosecutor’s office recommended abolition.
The Madrid-based court will eventually either put the case on hold or launch a full investigation with a view to a trial. But it now has the power to call people to testify, which could further embarrass Gómez. Gómez has not been charged.
The judge agreed to consider allegations that Gómez allegedly used her position to influence business deals. The court gave no further details and said the investigation was under seal.
Earlier this year, Spain’s government conflict of interest watchdog rejected a complaint against Sánchez by the Popular Party, in which the opposition party claimed Gómez allegedly influenced her husband in a decision related to an airline.
Gómez, 49, holds no public office and maintains a low political profile. She studied marketing and has been involved in fundraising projects and non-governmental organizations.
CLEAN HANDS
The allegations against Gómez were made by a group called Manos Limpias, or “Clean Hands.”
Manos Limpias takes advantage of a peculiarity of Spanish law called “popular prosecution,” which allows individuals or organizations to participate in certain criminal proceedings even if they have not been directly harmed by the defendant.
Manos Limpias describes itself as a union, but its main activity is to be a platform for pursuing legal cases. Many have been associated with right-wing causes directed against left-wing politicians, and most of them never succeed. But it played a role in a major legal battle that ended with the conviction of the son-in-law of former Spanish King Juan Carlos and led to his daughter Princess Cristina being dragged to court before being acquitted.
The general secretary of Manos Limpias, Miguel Bernad, belonged to a right-wing extremist party in the 1980s and early 1990s. Last month, Bernad won an appeal to Spain’s Supreme Court after a lower court found him guilty over his alleged involvement in an extortion ring.
On Thursday, Manos Limpias issued a statement to Spanish state news agency EFE saying his accusations against Gómez were based solely on media reports.
It said: “If they are not true, it is up to those who published them to admit their untruth, but if they are true then we believe the litigation should continue.”
SANCHEZ STYLE
While many politicians have come out in support of Sánchez, the Popular Party claims his decision is a political strategy to buy time and try to win support.
Oriol Bartomeus, a professor of political science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, said Sánchez’s move fits his profile as a politician who has managed to stay in power by overcoming the unexpected.
“This is pure Sánchez, this is his way of pushing the pieces off the board,” Bartomeus told The Associated Press.
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Giles reported from Madrid.