(Bloomberg) — A dispute between the United Kingdom and Ireland over a surge in asylum seekers threatens to upend their already fragile relations. With elections for leaders of both countries approaching, neither side appears to be backing down.
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Disagreements between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his newly installed Irish counterpart Taoiseach Simon Harris, came into focus this week when the government in Dublin introduced emergency legislation allowing asylum seekers to be returned to the UK. Sunak hit back, promising not to abide by a previous agreement to take in these refugees as long as Ireland’s EU colleague France refuses to repatriate migrants from Britain.
The incident has renewed concerns about recent agreements on post-Brexit trade across the Irish Sea and power-sharing between unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland, which remains part of the United Kingdom. At the heart of these agreements is maintaining an open north-south border on the island of Ireland, despite the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union in 2020.
The flow of people across that border is now coming under closer scrutiny in Dublin as Sunak steps up his campaign to “stop the boats” carrying migrants from France across the English Channel. Harris’ justice minister Helen McEntee told a parliamentary committee last week that 80% of those seeking international protection in her country came from the north.
On Thursday, authorities in Dublin renewed efforts to clear refugee camps outside Ireland’s international protection center in the capital. Irish media reported that the Republic would station police near the northern border, a controversial idea that was quickly denied by the Ministry of Justice. Irish police said their members would not be “physically” sent to the border.
The dispute is steeped in centuries of history between Ireland and the island’s former colonial masters in London. A key part of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland known as “The Troubles” was an open border.
The ongoing border crossing was also one of the most contentious issues between the UK and the EU after the Brexit referendum. And Harris, who took control of the ruling Fine Gael party following the surprise resignation of Leo Varadkar in March, needs to come out strong and take on Britain ahead of elections due within 10 months.
“I’m not sure how they’re going to get over this so quickly,” said Muiris MacCarthaigh, head of policy and international relations at Queen’s University Belfast. “They must cooperate, but if the British government were to go back on its specific commitments it would be politically disastrous.”
Immigration has become a key issue for Irish voters amid the housing crisis. Over 1,800 asylum seekers are currently homeless and sleeping on the streets.
Sunak faces similar pressure at home, where the populist Reform UK party founded by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage has promised “net zero” immigration as it seeks to restrict the ruling Conservative Party’s vote. With the number of asylum seekers in the country rising – including a record 7,567 in the first four months of the year – Sunak has passed a law allowing migrants to be deported to Rwanda and rejected Harris’ request for Ireland to accept more.
Harris, in turn, said the country would not provide a “loophole” for another country’s immigration challenges.
An Irish court ruling in March triggered the current standoff. In a striking parallel to a similar decision by Britain’s highest court last year, the Irish tribunal found that the UK was not a “safe country” for the return of asylum seekers given Sunak’s Rwanda plan.
This effectively froze a 2020 “operational agreement” between Ireland and the UK that allowed the transfer of asylum seekers between the two sides. Although no migrants had been sent under this agreement, the bill passed by the Irish Cabinet aimed to restore its viability.
Sunak said the UK had no legal obligation to accept asylum seekers returned from Ireland. Speaking to ITV News, Sunak said he would be “not interested” in a repatriation deal if the EU did not allow the UK to send asylum seekers back to France.
Tensions became apparent after British Home Secretary James Cleverly canceled a meeting with McEntee on the sidelines of an intergovernmental conference on Monday, citing “diary issues.” While Irish Deputy Prime Minister Micheal Martin and British Foreign Secretary for Northern Ireland Chris Heaton-Harris tried to present a united front at their meeting later in the day, the immigration dispute continued.
The political calendar represents a high risk for both sides. Elections for the local and European Parliament will take place in Ireland on June 7th. Sunak, whose party suffered big losses in local elections in the United Kingdom on Thursday, hopes to make tackling what he calls illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign in the expected general election later this year.
“There is definitely a feeling that British-Irish relations are on a rollercoaster ride at the moment,” said MacCarthaigh of Queen’s University Belfast.
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