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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
All political lives, noted British politician Enoch Powell, end in failure. For Scotland’s independence supporter Humza Yousaf, the end came much sooner than expected when he took office almost a year ago. His resignation, sparked by a miscalculation that exposed his woeful lack of political acumen, is a major setback for a Scottish national party whose fate was already hanging in the balance – and for its cherished cause of an independent Scotland.
Yousaf’s fatal mistake was excluding the Scottish Greens from a power-sharing deal rather than considering whether they would dump him after the pair fell out over scrapping high-profile climate targets. He intended the move as a power play and a fresh start for the SNP. Instead, it led to a motion of no confidence in him – and one against his government – concluding that he did not have the numbers to survive.
His departure accelerates the unraveling of the SNP’s project, which was already underway before Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation as first minister last year. The party, which has dominated Scottish politics since 2007, suffers from problems that have often plagued those in power for too long: hubris, exhaustion, loss of political sense and an air of depravity.
The SNP’s government record on key voter concerns such as education, health and housing has been poor. Although Covid intervened, Sturgeon failed to translate the enormous capital she had into many lasting policy achievements. The coalition with the low-profile Scottish Greens has had to abandon controversial and ill-conceived policies on bottle recycling and gender recognition. By failing to achieve clearly better results for Scots than the Westminster government south of the border, the SNP has missed the chance to win over many hesitant voters to its independence drive.
As long as the SNP could maintain momentum towards this goal, the SNP’s core voters were willing to overlook its general weaknesses. But as it has become clear that there is no easy path to a second independence referendum – which requires the approval of the British government – the party has begun arguing among themselves over how to proceed. And beyond its main goal, the party appears increasingly divided on other issues.
Her image, meanwhile, has been tarnished by the police investigation into the SNP’s finances. Although they have denied wrongdoing, senior figures including Sturgeon have been brought in for questioning, and Sturgeon’s husband and former SNP leader Peter Murrell has been charged in connection with the alleged misappropriation of funds.
The lesson for the SNP is that passion for its core cause must be matched by competent and successful government. It must find a leader who can both unite the party and take control of what, if it survives, will once again be a minority government. With a resurgent Labor Party, it must convince voters ahead of this year’s UK elections and Scottish elections in 2026 that further SNP rule would genuinely benefit Scotland.
This means setting clear priorities that have a broad, not narrow, constituency in the Scottish Parliament, and then implementing them effectively. The challenge is unlikely to be surmountable by any of the early candidates to replace Yousaf – the young but socially conservative Kate Forbes or the veteran John Swinney.
However, the SNP’s decline is no reason for complacency in Westminster. Support for Scottish independence, if not for the SNP, is still just under 50 percent. British union advocates now have some breathing room to find ways to make it more relevant and indispensable to Scots. To counter the forces of independence in the long term, the next British government should seize this opportunity.