A new study has found that climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions is the likely cause of the extreme weather events.
An expert panel of scientists has found that global warming caused by fossil fuel emissions has “most likely” exacerbated the heavy rains that hit the United Arab Emirates and Oman last week, causing deaths and widespread flooding.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international group of scientists that studies extreme weather events, said climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions was the likely cause but could not be determined “with certainty.”
The study, compiled by 21 international researchers, found that extreme rainfall during El Niño years increased by 10 to 40 percent in the affected region.
“Warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels is the most likely explanation for the increasing precipitation,” WWA said in the study released Thursday.
“There are no other known explanations” for the sharp increase in rainfall, the group added.
21 people died in Oman and four in the United Arab Emirates, which 75 years ago suffered the heaviest rain since weather records began for the desert Gulf state.
Oil producing countries are suffering from extreme heat caused by global warming. But last week’s floods have highlighted the added risk of extraordinary weather events as the planet warms.
“The floods in the United Arab Emirates and Oman have shown that even dry regions can be severely affected by rainfall events, a threat that is increasing with increasing global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels,” said Sonia Seneviratne, WWA member and Professor at ETH Zurich.
Extreme rain
The WWA study analyzed historical weather data and climate models to identify changes in precipitation patterns across the region, including in years affected by El Nino, a climate pattern that describes unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific.
Extreme rainfall events were found to be significantly less intense in the years before warming 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
“Extreme rainfall has increased by at least 10 percent in the United Arab Emirates and Oman,” said Mariam Zachariah, WWA member and researcher at London’s Imperial College.
“This finding … is consistent with the basic physics that a warmer atmosphere can retain more moisture.”
According to the official Oman News Agency, the storm first hit Oman on April 14, killing at least 21 people in flash floods and other incidents.
On April 16, a rainstorm that had lasted almost two years occurred in the United Arab Emirates, flooding homes, streets, shopping centers and offices and leaving four people dead.
Dubai experienced significant disruption for days, with major roads blocked by flooding, power outages and some residents trapped in their homes. Dubai airport, the world’s busiest airport for international travelers, canceled 2,155 flights, diverted 115 and was only at full capacity again on Tuesday.
“The situation was unprecedented in its severity, but we are a country that learns from every experience,” Dubai ruler and UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said on Wednesday, announcing a $544 million Dollar package for home repairs.
Friederike Otto, a climatologist and WWA member, said the world agreed to move away from fossil fuels at COP28 in Dubai, but almost six months later, countries are still developing new oil and gas fields.
“If the world continues to burn fossil fuels, rainfall will become increasingly heavier in many regions of the world, leading to deadlier and more destructive floods,” Otto said.