The end of TikTok has begun. As the dust settles after a week of shockingly quick legislative action by the US Congress, it’s clear that TikTok next year will look very different than the TikTok we use today.
When President Joe Biden signed a $95 billion foreign aid package on Wednesday, it brought to life a nightmare that has dogged TikTok for more than four years. If TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance refuses to divest its shares in the company, the US will ban the app nationwide. The signing started the clock, giving TikTok 270 days to find a new owner. (As The Washington Post Cristiano Lima-Strong noted that TikTok’s time will expire the day before Inauguration Day 2025.)
There are a few ways this could all change. An American company or a private equity fund could buy TikTok and its powerful recommendation algorithm. Or a buyer may just have to accept the basic framework of the platform without that algorithmic power; The Information reported Thursday that ByteDance had already begun testing what a sale would look like without the algorithm. Or maybe no buyer can be found and TikTok fails.
Unless TikTok or a slew of its users somehow win a lawsuit against the law signed this week — a lawsuit the company has already said it will file — all possible outcomes lead to an app that is entirely different.
If a US tech company were to miraculously buy ByteDance’s app and algorithm, it would likely integrate the app into its own products and services. But I doubt we’ll ever see a “TikTok by Meta.” Meta and other tech giants have been under intense antitrust scrutiny in recent years. If a company with a major social platform were to gobble up one of its biggest competitors, it would raise alarm bells with the Justice Department or the Federal Trade Commission.
Microsoft has indicated that it has an interest in buying TikTok, and it could be one of the only viable options for a buyer for the app. Otherwise, Microsoft’s largest subsidiary is LinkedIn – and can we even call LinkedIn a TikTok rival with a straight face?
For example, if a private equity firm like Blackstone were to buy TikTok without its much-envied algorithm, it could be difficult to rebuild the heart of the app. A company without extensive algorithm experts likely doesn’t have the expertise to quickly develop a feed-based social media platform from scratch. If they tried, I doubt the results would be pretty.
What if there is no new owner? Well, I guess we’ll stick with YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels. The popularity of TikTok in the US forced Google and Meta to invest in vertical videos, but these platforms primarily target the younger “skibidi toilet” generation. They wouldn’t easily fill a TikTok-shaped gap in the US internet.
Still, the law passed this week may not last much longer. In a statement calling the law unconstitutional, TikTok expressed confidence that the law could be overturned. “We believe the facts and the law are clearly on our side and that we will ultimately prevail,” a TikTok spokesperson said Wednesday. The company used a similar argument last year to win an injunction blocking a ban enacted in Montana.
Regardless of the outcome of this lawsuit, TikTok will be different. The only question is what kind of “different” that will be.
Time travel
In December, WIRED contributor Dexter Thomas met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew during the app’s first-ever music festival in Arizona. In this and similar interviews, Chew expresses his belief that skepticism about TikTok’s security will diminish as the app gains the trust of lawmakers.
Turns out Chew was wrong. But even after Biden signed the bill requiring divestment this week, TikTok released a video in which Chew addressed its users and promised to continue investing in the platform’s improvement and security. However, I wonder whether this gentle optimism will turn into something more aggressive over the next year as the deadline for the new law approaches.