The predicted victory of the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE could lead to tensions with EU neighbors Greece and Bulgaria.
North Macedonians are heading to the polls to take part in parliamentary and presidential elections that could represent a test of the Balkan nation’s European Union ambitions.
Wednesday’s votes came after Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE won a clear lead in the first round of last month’s presidential election. A victory for the nationalist party would lead to tensions with neighboring countries Greece and Bulgaria and threaten to put a strain on the already sluggish EU accession negotiations.
North Macedonia’s path to EU membership began in 2005, but progress was blocked for years by Greece in a dispute over the country’s name. That was resolved in 2018 when the country added “North” to its name.
However, Hristijan Mickoski, president of VMRO-DPMNE, who leads a 22-party coalition called “Your Macedonia,” refuses to recognize the new title.
Mickoski has also promised to maintain a hard line against Bulgaria on linguistic and historical issues. This dispute, in which Bulgaria demands that Skopje recognize a tiny Bulgarian minority, has led to Sofia blocking EU accession negotiations.
If VMRO-DPMNE secures a majority in the general election, Mickoski will likely be the country’s next prime minister.
The ruling center-left Social Democratic Party (SDSM) is pinning its hopes on starting talks with the EU and appeasing Bulgaria. They tried to change the constitution to recognize the Bulgarian minority, but lacked the numbers to get the motion through parliament.
“These elections will practically determine the future of Macedonia – whether we move towards a progressive society, towards the EU, or whether we move towards a bygone era when we had isolation and ethnic conflict,” the former prime minister and SDSM leader warned Dimitar Kovacevski.
Strong populism
However, the left-leaning party that currently leads the government and boasts of the presidency has struggled to regain the initiative since a heavy defeat in the first round of presidential elections, with Mickoski’s populist agenda proving effective.
Siljanovska-Davkova received 40 percent in the first round of voting on April 24, unexpectedly leaving incumbent Stevo Panderovski in second place with 19.9 percent.
Opinion polls suggest that VMRO-DPMNE will win the parliamentary elections by a double-digit margin.
“Victory is within reach and it is a consequence of all the suffering and humiliation that this government has brought,” Mickoski said at a rally before the vote.
He has promised to create tens of thousands of jobs and reverse weak economic growth and rising inflation. North Macedonia has lost about 10 percent of its population to emigration over the past two decades.
The VMRO-DPMNE president has also adopted increasingly aggressive language towards the DUI – the country’s largest Albanian party – raising fears about fragile inter-ethnic relations.
In 2001, NATO brought North Macedonia back from the brink of civil war during an Albanian uprising and promised faster integration into the EU and NATO.
The country of 1.83 million joined the military alliance in 2020, but impatience is growing over its slow progress toward EU membership.