(Bloomberg) — Mexican opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez is running out of options to mount a serious challenge to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s appointed successor as he trails by a wide margin in polls just five weeks before Election Day.
Most read by Bloomberg
On Sunday, in the second of three debates against the frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaumshe will try to make a comeback.
Galvez, a senator with a gift for sharp remarks about Lopez Obrador, attracted enough attention last year to win the support of three of the four major opposition parties. But her support among voters has stagnated, partly due to her coalition’s disorganized strategy and her own mistakes. The second debate, with the June 2 vote fast approaching, is one of the last chances she has in front of a national audience to improve her image as a serious candidate.
“Three weeks ago she had a chance and failed dramatically, so this is her last chance,” said Carlos Perez Ricart, assistant professor of international relations at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics. “She’s going to have to use it very intelligently.”
Bloomberg’s poll tracker showed a 28-point gap between Galvez and Sheinbaum on Friday, with 32% of voters saying they would support the opposition candidate. A third candidate, Jorge Alvarez Maynez, is far behind.
Read more: Mexico poll tracker: Sheinbaum 60.5%; Galvez 32.3%
Sheinbaum came to the role with the president’s firm support, which contributed to her popularity. Less charismatic than her mentor, she has championed industries that may not generally support his leadership, telling business leaders about their energy transition plans and growth strategies in states less supportive of the current administration.
Speak from the heart
But the upcoming debate, scheduled for 8 p.m. in Mexico City, could play to Galvez’s strengths.
The candidates will discuss economic growth, employment and inflation – issues that could give Galvez more room to present herself as a pro-business candidate. She has criticized Lopez Obrador for his handling of the energy sector and his failure to improve security conditions.
A campaign official who works for one of Galvez’s advisers said preparations for the first debate were rigorous but focused too much on statistics for the candidate to recite. This time, the employee added, she had to speak from the heart because that was the best way to connect with viewers.
For Galvez, it will be both an opportunity and a challenge to improve her strategy of targeted criticism, which has shown signs of failure. She gained a following by dressing up as a dinosaur in the Senate to point out how backwards the ruling party’s ideas were and demanding the right to attend the president’s press conference for the same amount of time. But commentators have described Sheinbaum’s unflappable demeanor as more presidential. (Galvez called her “Frozen” in the previous debate.)
Political analysts have also questioned whether Galvez has enough experience to develop a political strategy while Sheinbaum has the dignity of having led Mexico City as mayor.
Galvez, a businesswoman who has emphasized her indigenous and working-class background, has struggled since the start of the campaign to win the unequivocal support of the various parties that make up the opposition coalition, whose members include the Revolutionary Institutional Party, known as PRI , includes the National Action Party, known as PAN, as well as the smaller PRD.
She has sought to portray herself as officially non-partisan to deflect criticism of her performance during her time in power in the 2000s and early 2010s, before Lopez Obrador’s landslide election in 2018.
Read more: Mexico’s Maverick “Ms. X’ adopts pragmatism in running for president
She was never “the candidate who had the presence of a statesman, and that cannot be changed,” said Alejandro Schtulmann, head of the analysis house EMPRA. “It lacked the structure of a party. She had to be friendly with the PRI people, get together with the PRD people, and even in the PAN they don’t particularly love her.”
But one of Galvez’s top advisers, former Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo, said Galvez was the best candidate to attract foreign investment to Mexico.
At an event hosted by Bloomberg this week in Mexico City, Guajardo also offered a possible preview of Galvez’s line of attack during the debate. He told the market-savvy audience that it would be better able to address infrastructure deficiencies that could potentially deter companies looking to relocate closer to the U.S. market from choosing Mexico.
“We could have a mechanism to rescue and invest in what is the biggest bottleneck to industrial park development, which is energy supply and infrastructure,” he said. Of Galvez, he added: “She is a woman with pragmatic solutions. She has no ideology that would prevent her from making the decisions that most benefit Mexicans.”
– With assistance from Carolina Millan.
Most read by Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg LP