India’s Caste Census Becomes Electoral Breaking Point as Opposition Targets Narendra Modi

India’s opposition political alliance has vowed to conduct the first nationwide census of caste groups in nearly a century if elected. This is a controversial attempt to mobilize marginalized voters who have allegedly been left behind by Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party.

Modi has dominated Indian politics for a decade, including by courting voters of all castes, portraying his party as a unifier of Hindus while stoking distrust of India’s large Muslim minority.

But his rivals argue that this has masked increasing hardship and unemployment among lower-caste Indians. The opposition, a loose alliance of parties called INDIA, has promised to conduct a socio-economic caste census and increase affirmative action and welfare benefits for disadvantaged groups if they are elected in India’s six-week election ending June 1.

Their campaign builds on a census conducted last year in the vast northern state of Bihar, one of the poorest and most populous. It was revealed that the lower castes constituted a large majority of the state’s 130 million population and were among the most disadvantaged despite decades of government policies aimed at eliminating caste inequalities.

“This is our new revolutionary mission,” Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the opposition Indian National Congress, told supporters last month.

Analysts said the opposition hopes to win over lower-caste voters who, if the Bihar census is a representative measure, could represent a larger share of India’s 1.4 billion population than officially recognized.

“This nation is brutally divided on the basis of caste and people who have the privilege of being upper caste are not ready to jettison that,” said Manoj Jha, a lawmaker from the Bihar-based Congress ally Rashtriya Janata Dal. “This caste survey will change grammar forever.”

India’s ancient social hierarchy extends from the priestly Brahmin caste to Dalits, once known as untouchables and now categorized as “scheduled castes.” The other layers in between represent merchants, farmers and workers.

India has attempted to abolish caste discrimination by reserving quotas in government jobs and universities for Dalits and later “other backward classes.”

But until the Bihar polls, authorities had shied away from counting castes for fear of political unrest. The last nationwide data on castes was released in 1931. The population was disproportionately poor, with almost half of Dalit families living below the poverty line, compared to a quarter of upper castes.

“The BJP has really managed to win significant votes [lower-caste] voices, especially under Modi,” said Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Congress believes that with this demand it can get them back on their side.”

But analysts warned that the opposition may struggle to convince voters of the merits of a nationwide caste census.

The BJP’s rivals “practice casteism,” said Kumari Saniya, a 21-year-old engineering student from a privileged caste in Patna, the capital of Bihar, and a supporter of the ruling party. “If you divide people based on their caste, it leads to fights among people.”

Modi, the head of a traditionally upper-caste party, has sought to portray himself as a leader who rises above caste divides to serve India’s poor. “Since 2014, when Narendra Modi became prime minister, caste-based politics has been eradicated,” said Danish Eqbal, a BJP spokesman in Bihar.

The prime minister has increased social spending for the poor, such as through cash transfers and free food programs. In recent days he has lashed out at the Congress, portraying its demands for a caste census as part of a “hidden agenda” to divide Hindus and “take away their wealth and advantages and give them to Muslims”.

Ronojoy Sen of the National University of Singapore said there appeared to be “unease within the BJP ranks about whether this persistent demand for a caste count could potentially steal away some voters,” but added that a return to power would be “extremely difficult “is a difficult task for Congress”.

Sonu Kumar Yadav, a 24-year-old lower-caste Patna resident and devotee of India, said he was forced to give up his studies and work as a driver to earn money. “Modi made a lot of promises but nothing happened,” he said. “Just talking doesn’t help.”

Political scientists argued that the BJP was as attuned to caste politics as its rivals. “The BJP is a party that has a very resilient upper-caste bloc around it,” said Pavithra Suryanarayan, assistant professor of government at the London School of Economics. “There has been an attempt to grow this bloc under a muscular Hindutva [Hindu nationalist]Alliance of upper castes.”

Critics said the BJP’s claim that it ignores caste ignores the insidious role the system continues to play in modern India. While overt segregation – including “untouchability” – is banned, caste inequality is often evident, even in the layout of Bihar’s villages.

In Parsa Bazar, a village on the outskirts of Patna, different castes live on separate streets. The multi-story brick houses of wealthier groups are giving way to the run-down, toilet-free alleys where Dalits live.

Nishant Kumar, a 28-year-old Dalit, is preparing to join the Bihar civil service under a quota. His ex-girlfriend, who belongs to an upper caste, told him that her father would never support their marriage.

“If you ask the upper castes, they say there should be no caste-based reservations,” he said. “As long as there is discrimination based on caste, reservations must remain.”

Others felt that tackling caste inequality would require more than just positive action. Baleshwar Majhi, a 65-year-old Dalit, said benefits such as government jobs were available only to those with connections or money for bribes. Whichever party wins next month, this reality will not change, he added.

“Reservations don’t help,” he said. “The benefits don’t reach the poor.”

Additional reporting by Andy Lin in Hong Kong