Mae Sot, Thailand – On April 11, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU) in Myanmar, a staunch opponent of the military coup, captured the base of the 275 Light Infantry Battalion about 5 km (3.1 miles) west of Myawaddy. a city of crucial strategic importance on the border between Myanmar and Thailand.
The KNU immediately announced a successful offensive and published photos of its troops at the entrance to the city. Although the KNU did not definitively claim it had taken the city, many believed Myawaddy had been completely liberated from the forces fighting the generals who seized power from the elected government in a coup in 2021.
But the situation was not quite what it seemed.
Just two weeks after the KNLA took control of the base, the Myanmar military was back, sharing a picture of its soldiers raising their flag on the site in a sudden and surprising turn of events.
Interviews with Myawaddy residents, sources close to the offensive, and analysts suggest that the KNLA never took the entire city. Rather, Myawaddy was under the control of the Border Guard Forces (BGF), a notorious militia that operates in the border areas that are home to the Karen ethnic group, Myanmar’s second largest ethnic group. And at the center of the incident is Colonel Saw Chit Thu – a strongman of Karen ethnic origin who leads the BGF with thousands of armed men under his command.
“Myawaddy was never captured by the KNLA. While the remaining junta troops of the 275th LIB withdrew, the BGF Army took control of Myawaddy and Saw Chit Thu stated that they would remain neutral to avoid conflict within the city,” said an armed source ethnic group close to the Karen, requested anonymity by Al Jazeera for fear of reprisals.
“During the capture of the 275th LIB, the BGF troops facilitated the transfer of the junta troops from their base to the 2nd Friendship Bridge. Although KNLA troops were allowed to enter the city, they were not allowed to occupy it or attack any of the junta’s administrative buildings in the city.”
The claim was confirmed by four different sources and analysts with extensive knowledge of the incident.
Myawaddy, with more than 200,000 residents, is one of Myanmar’s largest cities and occupies a crucial location on the Thailand-Myanmar border, which has carried billions of dollars in trade for decades. His apparent downfall signaled a significant breakthrough for those fighting the generals following the success of Operation 1027, a major offensive by a coalition of other ethnic armed groups last year.
But when the Myanmar military threatened to destroy the city from the air and attack Shwe Kokko, a district north of Myawaddy and the heart of Saw Chit Thu’s criminal empire where fraud operations are rife, he chose to join the military to allow the recapture of their base in order to consolidate their power and gains.
“It became clear that the BGF had played both sides and that it had ultimately decided to support the military regime, which resulted in a photo op taking place where the Myanmar flag was raised over the base again,” said Jason Tower, the Myanmar director of the United States State Institute of Peace (USIP) told Al Jazeera.
Saw Chit Thu is a veteran fighter and was once commander of the 999 Battalion of the Karen Buddhist Democratic Army (DKBA), a military-affiliated group that split from the KNU in 1994. He has since become one of the most feared figures in Karen State and has worked closely with the Myanmar military.
According to experts, the group was actively involved in burning villages to support the Myanmar army and even bombed camps housing displaced people.
“The real winner here was the BGF, which through the fighting managed to protect its criminal enterprises and expand its areas of control,” Tower said.
The criminal strongman
At the Dragon Casino in Myawaddy, a BMW pulls up in front of a huge black gate surrounded by high concrete walls with barbed wire. The security guards guarding the “entertainment complex” rush toward the men sitting inside and, after a cursory inspection of the trunk, wave the vehicle through with a quick salute.
Such casinos are popping up everywhere along the Thaungyin River. From Thailand, at least five newly constructed facilities are clearly visible along the river that marks the border with Myanmar.
Some have moved to the area since anti-coup forces advanced in northern Shan State and began cracking down on criminal activities there.
The development of such venues, largely controlled by China, came with the blessing of Saw Chit Thu, according to a new report from the US Institute of Peace (USIP). Its soldiers provide cover for a cut of Chinese syndicates’ rising profits, estimated to be as much as $3 trillion a year.
But while the scams have made Myawaddy Myanmar’s new hotbed of crime, they were not the only problem at play in recent events in the city, analysts say.
“It was definitely not the BGF that played the main role, but it definitely made a difference,” said Kim Jollife, an independent researcher with more than 15 years of experience in Myanmar.
According to Jollife, the BGF is providing support and information to the military on the front lines, as well as bringing food, water and fuel. Having withdrawn this support from the military, it was easier for the KNLA to move forward and capture the military bases both on the outskirts of the city and beyond.
After the KNLA captured a number of heavy artillery, the pressure was enough for Battalion 275 to surrender.
“We don’t know exactly what happened or why everything changed,” Jollife said. “But there are two general theories: one is that Saw Chit Tu is playing games and that he is trying to get the best possible terms from both sides. Both sides feel like they need him, so he can play that game where he tries to get certain guarantees.”
Saw Chit Thu and a spokesman for the military government did not respond to calls from Al Jazeera seeking comment.
Jollife’s other theory is related to disputes within the BGF’s ranks. It is rumored that some top militia leaders want to remain loyal to the generals, while others are more likely to support the KNLA. It remains unclear where Saw Chit Thu stands, but Joliffe says it’s safe to say he’s choosing what best supports his personal economic interests.
Myawaddy, he stressed, is “still far from being under the control of the junta” and the situation is “in a very delicate balance.” He notes that the KNLA has captured three other important military bases not far from Myawaddy in recent weeks.
“The Myanmar military has been unable to bring in significant new forces… It’s not like they’ve just completely retaken Myawaddy.”
Fear of reprisals
Since 2021, Chinese criminal enterprises across Southeast Asia have expanded their fraud operations, tricking tens of thousands of people into working for them.
In the scams, workers are forced to commit romance scams or “pig-slaying” scams, in which fraudsters build “trust” with their victims over time, only to eventually betray them and make off with their money. Many of the scams occur under threats of violence or death to those forced to work on the site.
“Chit Thus BGF is the force to enforce the will of Chinese criminals who operate Shwe Kokko as a sin city with fraud, human trafficking, gambling and prostitution,” Phil Robertson, Bangkok-based deputy Asia director at Human Rights Watch, told Al Jazeera. “It is a cancer on the rule of law, good governance and human rights in Karen State and must ultimately be dealt with in one way or another.”
When speaking to Myawaddy residents about Saw Chit Thu, there is an unmistakable sense of fear, especially because they know that the colonel has become rich through extortion and other strategies aimed at the people of Karen State .
The strongman was sanctioned by the UK last year over alleged human trafficking.
“It is so sad to see that the land of the Karen people is now turning into an area full of criminal groups and activities,” a leading Karen women’s rights activist, who could not be named for fear of reprisals, told Al Jazeera . This sentiment is shared by many other ethnic Karen people living in the area, but they also fear that speaking out could put themselves in danger.
“The BGF has never helped us refugees,” a newly displaced woman told Al Jazeera from a hospital in Mae Sot, just across the border in Thailand. “I can’t say more, but the KNU has always been there for us.”
With Myanmar’s trade routes, including those with China, India and Thailand, blocked by resistance forces, the generals are doing everything they can to regain full control of Myawaddy, the anonymous source said.
Thousands of people fled the fighting last month. But now they may be threatened with another attack.
“Operation Aung Zeya, involving reinforcement columns from the 11th, 44th, 55th and 77th Light Infantry Divisions, is a nationwide operation aimed at retaking Myawaddy,” the unidentified source said of an impending new military offensive.
“As of April 29, about 2,000 junta soldiers are on their way to Myawaddy.”