Semafor signals
Supported by
Insights from the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, Növekedés and the Royal United Services Institute
The news
Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Budapest on Wednesday, the final stop on a week-long visit to Europe that many experts see as a strategic move to deepen ideological divides in the European Union.
Xi’s first visit to France was met with mild resistance from French President Emmanuel Macron and EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, both of whom pressed him on China’s cheap green technology and its impact on European competition. The pair also questioned Xi about Beijing’s continued support of Russia in the war in Ukraine. But experts agreed that the invitation to France signals that the EU is not ready to completely cut ties with Beijing.
Xi could be a little more open during his stops in Serbia and Hungary – both NATO-sceptic countries that prefer stronger ties with China. Support for Eastern Europe could further divide the fragile bloc on security and economic policy – to Beijing’s (and Russia’s) advantage.
SIGNALS
Hungarians’ views on China are complicated
Sources: Central European Institute for Asian Studies, Growth, Századvég, Telex
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remains China’s main ally in the EU, but his people have more nuanced views. A 2020 study found that the majority of Hungarians – including Orbán supporters – had a poor view of China, particularly given the country’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a more recent study from 2022 found that negative sentiment is easing as China invests in the Hungarian economy. A 2023 study by the conservative think tank Századvég found that 79% of Hungarians oppose stronger trade restrictions with China, but 50% of Hungarians also oppose building Chinese electric vehicle battery factories there on environmental grounds, as the news site Telex shows. The affection is not completely limitless.
Xi’s visit to a NATO-sceptic country could further divide the EU
Sources:politika, Royal United Services Institute
In an op-ed in a Serbian newspaper, Xi said Serbia and China were “forged by blood” after the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1995, which killed three journalists. The fact that Xi immediately moved against NATO after his more confident visit to France is “like playing Jekyll and Hyde“wrote China observer Sari Arho Havrén from the security think tank RUSI. But Xi cannot play both a pro-NATO and an anti-NATO role, she argued. While Xi is showing his true anti-NATO colors in Serbia and Hungary, his Paris visit may ultimately do little to influence the EU’s overall security posture and move it closer to the US, she argued. But that could be Xi’s goal: to force a wedge in the EU between NATO-friendly Western countries and NATO-sceptic countries in the East, the Financial Times wrote.
Beijing exerts a chilling influence on Hungary’s press freedom
Sources: Xinhua, Semafor, Reporters Without Borders
Ahead of Xi’s arrival in Budapest, China’s state news agency Xinhua and the Hungarian Ministry of Economy agreed that Xinhua would “continue to work with Hungarian media” to promote the countries’ bilateral relations. The deal is the latest in Beijing’s long-running influence campaign in Hungary. Earlier this year, Budapest announced that Chinese police would patrol Hungarian cities with large Chinese expatriates and tourists – potentially deterring any opposition activity. Meanwhile, press freedoms in Hungary have deteriorated since Orbán came to power, while propaganda has increased: Hungary recently passed a law requiring foreign-funded news outlets to disclose information and register as foreign agents, in line with Russia’s restrictive media laws.
