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Who is Xi Jinping’s travel agent? If it’s your first time traveling to Europe in almost five years, an itinerary labeled “France, Serbia, Hungary” might seem a bit eccentric.
But the three stations that the Chinese head of state has chosen make perfect sense from Beijing’s perspective. For strategic and economic reasons, China desperately wants to disrupt the unity of NATO and the EU. Each of the three countries Xi is visiting is seen as a potential lever to open the rifts in the West.
On a recent visit to Beijing, I found that Chinese foreign policy experts were intrigued by French talk about the need for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy” from the United States. In a speech in Paris last month, French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe should never be a “vassal of the United States” – a phrase also favored by China.
The Xi administration was also pleased when Macron suggested on a flight back from Beijing last year that Europe had no interest in protecting Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion. Although there have been some attempts to explain these remarks, the Chinese have noted with gratitude that France later blocked efforts to open a NATO liaison office in Tokyo. A central goal of Chinese foreign policy is to keep NATO countries out of Asia – and to prevent America from connecting its allies in Asia and Europe.
But the Chinese risk overinterpreting the radicalism of Macron’s ideas regarding NATO. The French president may have once spoken of the alliance experiencing “brain death.” But recently he has taken a much more aggressive stance towards Russia – placing real limits on France’s willingness and ability to distance itself from NATO or the US.
Xi’s trip to Europe also has a strong economic component. And on these issues France is a much more difficult partner. Macron may not challenge China over Taiwan – but the future of the French automotive industry is another matter.
China’s electric vehicles have a huge cost advantage over their European and American competitors. Exporting these electric vehicles is crucial to Xi’s plans to revitalize China’s economy. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was forthcoming about Beijing’s ambitions on a recent trip to China – reflecting German automakers’ fears of a trade war.
But with strong support from France, the European Commission has launched a competition investigation into Chinese electric vehicles. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, already unpopular in Beijing over her plans to “de-risk” the EU’s relations with China, will accompany Macron to a meeting with Xi. The chances of the Commission giving in seem slim.
The Serbian leg of Xi’s European visit will give the Chinese leader a chance to convey a geopolitical message. Xi’s visit coincides with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War. This will allow China to underline the argument, also made by Russia, that NATO is an aggressive and dangerous organization. (NATO has always insisted that the Chinese embassy bombing was an accident that occurred in the context of a war to protect Kosovars from Serbian aggression.)
Xi’s anti-NATO message could be well received in his homeland, where the Belgrade embassy bombing understandably still provokes strong anger. Russia and much of the Global South will also like the anti-Western messages. But telling Europeans that they are vassals of America and that NATO is a dangerous organization is a message that most Europeans find offensive at best and threatening at worst. The 30 European countries that have joined the alliance know that NATO is needed more than ever as Russia wages a war of aggression on their borders.
Xi’s third stop is Hungary – a NATO member. Nevertheless, the country’s leader, Viktor Orbán, has positioned himself as the most pro-Russian voice within the Western alliance – and is doing a similar service to China. Hungary has blocked several EU resolutions critical of China.
After expelling the Central European University, a liberal Western institution, from Hungary, Orbán invited China’s Fudan University to set up shop in Budapest. During a recent visit to Beijing, Hungary’s foreign minister expressed disdain for the idea that China has an “overcapacity” of electric vehicles.
There is an immediate advantage for Hungary to take this position, as at least one Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer plans to use the country as a production base. If the compromise solution for electric vehicles is for Chinese companies to do more of their production in Europe, then Hungary is well placed to benefit.
But Xi’s decision to visit Serbia and Hungary will make it difficult to convince most other Europeans that he is coming on friendly terms. Serbia is outside both the EU and NATO; while Hungary has undermined both organizations from within. Both countries are friendly towards Russia. The fact that Xi will soon return home to host Vladimir Putin in Beijing will heighten European concerns about China’s true intentions.
Spending time with outliers — like Orbán and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić — is unlikely to advance Xi’s own understanding of how the majority of Europe views Russia. The Chinese leader’s travel agency should have come up with a more sophisticated itinerary.