Over the course of 48 agonizing hours, Rishi Sunak saw his Conservative party crushed in elections across England and Wales, culminating in the agonizingly narrow defeat of Andy Street as Tory mayor of the West Midlands.
The grim outlook was summed up on the activist website ConservativeHome: “This election has only confirmed that the Conservatives are heading for the electoral equivalent of the Chicxulub asteroid impact (except this time a dinosaur or two might survive).”
So what do the results tell us about the state of British politics and the preparations for the next general election?
Dire for the conservatives
The Conservatives lost around half of the council seats they were defending, with Labor winning in general election target areas across England and the Liberal Democrats advancing in the “blue wall”.
Meanwhile, the Tories lost the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election to Labor by a margin of 26 points, the third highest since the Second World War, and lost key mayoral contests including London and West Midlands.
One bright spot was Lord Ben Houchen’s victory as Tees Valley mayor, but even he lost votes and made little reference to the Conservatives or Sunak during the election campaign, “forgetting” to wear a blue rosette during his count.
I look positive
Expect much more from Number 10 on local election expert Michael Thrasher’s forecast for the “national equivalent vote”, which puts Labor’s share of the vote at 34 points, just seven ahead of the Tories on 27.
Thrasher said such a performance pointed to a stalemate in Parliament in the general election, and Number 10 claimed it would force Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer to form an unstable coalition, possibly also with the Scottish National Party.
With national opinion polls typically giving Labor a 20-point lead, it’s easy to see why Number 10 was keen to pick up on this analysis. “The polls are wrong,” said Transport Minister Mark Harper.
What others say
Many election experts are unimpressed. They say “national equivalence vote” exercises are good for forecasting local election results to create a national picture, but are a poor guide for future general elections.
They find that people vote very differently in local elections, often supporting smaller parties such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats, while they may tactically vote for Labor in general elections.
Last week’s election did not take place in Scotland – where Labor is hoping to make big gains at the expense of the SNP – while Reform UK, a threat to the Tories, will have a much stronger presence in the general election.
Work is progressing in the target areas
Even though the national vote share was just 34 per cent, psephologists note that Labor’s support is now being “efficiently” distributed across targeted areas, rather than concentrated in safe seats in urban areas.
For example, Starmer’s party won in Hartlepool, scene of a memorable by-election victory for Boris Johnson in 2021, Redditch in the crucial West Midlands battleground and Rushmoor in Hampshire.
Labor’s easy win in the Blackpool South by-election was also encouraging, but Starmer’s team will be trying to find out why they failed to win the main target of Harlow council in Essex, where the Tories held on.
A yellow dawn?
The somewhat unannounced local elections represented solid progress for the Liberal Democrats, who won a total of 522 seats, relegating the Conservatives to third place with 515.
Worryingly for Sunak, the electoral map showed the Liberal Democrats making gains in wealthy Blue Wall seats where they hope to make gains over the Conservatives in the general election.
Victories in Dorset and Tunbridge Wells confirmed the threat posed by Sir Ed Davey’s party. In Woking, a target seat in Surrey, the Liberal Democrats now have 24 council seats while the Conservatives have none.
Significant others
The Greens had a good election result, winning more than 70 seats and narrowly failing to take a majority in Bristol. The party could lose important votes to Labor in the general election.
Reform UK, founded by Nigel Farage, won 16.9 percent of the vote in Blackpool South but narrowly managed to push the Conservatives into third place – depriving the insurgent party of a psychological breakthrough.
Elsewhere, Reform won only a handful of council seats in local elections but will pose a greater threat to Sunak in the general election, when the country has vowed to field any Conservative candidate.
Labor’s Gaza problem
Pat McFadden, Labor’s campaign manager, admitted the party’s stance on the war between Israel and Hamas had cost it support in Muslim communities. “We will work to win back people’s support,” he said.
The problem was evident in Oldham, where Labor lost control of the local council after ceding seats to independent councilors who campaigned for Palestine.
In the West Midlands, independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob came third with almost 20 percent of the vote after running a campaign focused on the Gaza war. Some Labor MPs fear the issue could cost them key votes – and possibly some seats – in the general election.
Return of Boris Johnson?
As many Tory MPs come to terms with defeat in the general election, the focus is increasingly shifting to what happens to the party after polling day and what direction it might take.
Farage is constantly rumored to be considering a return to frontline politics and could have a significant impact on the future of right-wing politics in Britain.
But there are also talks about whether former Prime Minister Boris Johnson might re-enter the fray. He retains a rare level of popularity with the Tories: interestingly, Johnson’s support was welcomed by Houchen and Street, who did not want such support from Sunak.