US President Joe Biden has been under increasing pressure for months to stop arms sales to Israel as the US ally wages war in the Gaza Strip.
Human rights activists, lawmakers and protesters across the U.S. have called for an end to the transfers and warned the president that the weapons would be used in human rights abuses and war crimes in Gaza.
This week, senior Biden administration officials confirmed that Washington had suspended a shipment of “high-payload munitions” to Israel over concerns about the Israeli military’s planned offensive in the southern Gaza town of Rafah.
Biden himself appeared to go a step further on Wednesday evening, telling CNN that he would not “supply the weapons that have been used in the past to combat Rafah” if Israeli forces move into “population centers.”
But what exactly did Biden say, what significance do his comments have in practice and what should come next according to experts?
What did Biden say?
CNN’s Erin Burnett asked Biden in an interview broadcast Wednesday about his administration’s decision to stop sending individual weapons to Israel, which included 1,800 bombs weighing about 900 kilograms (2,000 pounds) each and another 1,700 bombs weighing each contained 226 kg (500 pounds).
“Were these bombs, these powerful 2,000-pound bombs, used to kill civilians in Gaza?” Burnett asked.
Biden responded: “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a result of these bombs and in other ways [the Israeli forces] Track population centers.”
“And I have made it clear that if they invade Rafah – they have not invaded Rafah yet – if they invade Rafah, I am not supplying the weapons that have been used in the past to fight Rafah and to fight the cities who are dealing with this problem.”
The US president added that his administration would “continue to ensure Israel’s security.” [its] “Iron Dome” missile defense system and its ability to “respond to attacks”.
“But it’s just wrong. We will not supply the weapons and artillery shells,” he said.
Burnett then asked Biden whether Israeli forces, which occupied the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt this week and launched deadly attacks on the city, had not already “entered Rafah.”
“They haven’t penetrated the metropolitan areas. “What they did is right at the border,” Biden said.
“I made it clear to ‘Bibi’ [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] and the War Cabinet: They will not have our support if they actually move into these population centers.”
However, the Rafah crossing borders the town of Rafah, and Palestinians point out that even before Israel captured the area, it attacked Rafah with airstrikes throughout the war, killing scores of civilians, including children.
What does Biden’s warning mean in practice?
Brian Finucane, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group’s U.S. program, said Biden had not been explicit about the types of weapons that would be included in what he described as those “historically used to combat Rafah.” .
The US president’s comments also “did not provide a model of clarity as to what the trigger for such a termination would be, given that Israeli troops are already in Rafah,” Finucane told Al Jazeera.
He added that “even if there were an immediate halt to air deliveries of ammunition or artillery shells” to the Israeli military, “this may not have an immediate operational impact due to the stocks that may exist.”
Still, Finucane said, “This is another step … and it’s an overdue step, but I think it remains to be seen how the Biden administration will implement this.”
However, Patrick Bury, a professor specializing in warfare at the University of Bath, said a large-scale military operation in Rafah would result in Israel burning through its ammunition very quickly.
Therefore, a possible US arms ban will be “an important consideration” for Israel, Bury told Al Jazeera in a television interview.
In his speech on Thursday, Netanyahu responded to Biden, saying Israel would “stand alone” if it had to.
“I said we will fight tooth and nail if necessary,” the prime minister said in a video address. “But we have much more than just fingernails, and with the same strength of spirit and with God’s help, we will win together.”
What signal does it send?
Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a think tank in Washington, DC, said that in practice Biden’s announcement was “very limited and very qualified.” [and] very conditional.”
Biden’s argument was also flawed, Jarrar told Al Jazeera, as it was tied to a disagreement between the US and Israeli governments over Israel’s military tactics and efforts to mount a full-scale attack on Rafah.
However, Jarrar said the US president’s comments were a signal that Washington’s “blank check policy towards Israel appears to be coming to an end.”
They are also, in effect, an “admission that Israel is committing very serious crimes with U.S. weapons – and that this admission should lead to very serious consequences mandated by U.S. law,” Jarrar said.
What else should the U.S. do, according to experts and human rights activists?
Finuncane said it was important not to “lose sight of the bigger picture” when discussing Israel’s military tactics in Rafah.
“The United States has significant leverage to end this conflict,” he said, pointing to the weapons and other military assistance the American government is providing to Israel.
“After seven long months of conflict, it should use this leverage to end the fighting, facilitate the exchange of hostages, … enable the delivery of aid to Gaza and hopefully lower the temperature in the region.”
The U.S. sends Israel $3.8 billion in military aid annually, and Congress recently approved billions of dollars in additional aid for the country.
Jarrar also said the Biden administration must apply the country’s own laws, such as the Arms Export Control Act and the Foreign Assistance Act. The latter includes the so-called Leahy Law, which prohibits support for foreign military units that commit abuses.
The Biden administration’s self-declared policy on conventional arms transfers also prohibits arms transfers to countries “suspected of committing genocide or other widespread human rights violations through the use of U.S. weapons,” Jarrar said.
The International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ highest court, said in January that there was a plausible risk of genocide in Gaza and ordered Israel to prevent any genocidal acts in the enclave.
“There is a lot” the Biden administration can do, Jarrar added. “There are also moral and legal obligations [that] The government is in violation by continuing to support and support Israel.”