Trump Vs. Biden: Who Will Win with Six Months to Go?

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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

In the critical swing states, Donald Trump has a small lead in the polls over Joe Biden, six months before US voters elect the next president on November 5th.

It marks a stunning turnaround for Trump, who left the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 percent after a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 to overturn his election defeat.

More registered voters think Biden’s presidency is a failure compared to Trump’s, according to a recent CNN poll. 55 percent of U.S. respondents said Trump’s presidency was a success, compared to 39 percent for Biden.

According to Pew Research, Biden’s approval rating has fallen 19 percentage points since the start of his presidency, to 35 percent in April.

Still, the 2024 election looks set to be an exceptionally close rematch of the 2020 race, when just 43,000 votes out of 155 million cast gave Biden victory.

With six months to go, here’s where things stand.

What do the polls currently say?

The national polls were close. Trump and Biden are at just over 40 percent in the polls, with Trump currently holding a narrow lead of 0.8 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages, well within the bounds of statistical error. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr is polling at around 10 percent, although support for such candidates tends to be higher in pre-election polls than in actual elections.

But the US presidential election is not decided by a national vote. Rather, they will be decided in contests across the 50 states that will elect all voters and send voters to the Electoral College. The candidate who receives 270 of the 538 electoral college votes becomes president.

In seven key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Trump leads Biden by one to six points.

Which issues will decide the election – and who is leading the way?

The top priority for US voters remains the economy – an issue that has boosted Trump over Biden.

Overall, 41 percent of voters trust Trump on the economy, compared to just 35 percent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.

A recent CNN poll found that 65 percent of registered voters considered the economy “extremely” important to their vote – more than any other issue – and close to levels not seen since October 2008.

While inflation has certainly hurt Biden, political views on the economy also play a role. Of those who said the economy was “bad,” 41 percent said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37 percent said lower inflation and 14 percent said better personal finances.

Other key issues include immigration – where polls suggest voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden – as well as protecting democracy, upholding abortion rights and reducing health care costs. Biden is stronger in the last three.

Most Americans don’t vote for foreign policy reasons. But voters have consistently expressed their belief that the U.S. spends too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to a monthly FT-Michigan Ross poll. That could help Trump.

Although Trump has not said he will cut funding for either country, the former president has made it clear that he expects other countries in Europe to increase their defense spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid for the two countries – only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.

Perhaps even more important than the issues is how voters view Biden and Trump as people.

A majority of voters say Trump, 77, is physically and mentally fitter than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will behave ethically in office. According to a Pew Research poll in April, 62 percent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden would be mentally up to the task, compared to 59 percent who said they were not confident Trump would act ethically.

Trump faces four criminal charges, including federal and state charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. A majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty on the four counts, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll. And 24 percent of registered voters who support Trump say they might reconsider if the former president is convicted, according to a CNN poll.

Who has more money and where is it spent?

Biden has clearly overtaken Trump in the money race, so that by the end of March the Biden groups had $66 million more at their disposal than the Trump groups.

Trump’s coffers are depleted by his legal fees. His donors have paid $76 million for Trump’s lawyers since January 2023 – 26 percent of the total raised for the ex-president.

According to AdImpact, Biden’s campaign has already spent more than $39 million on advertising this year, compared to $25 million for Trump. But much of Trump’s advertising spending went into the presidential primaries, as he battled well-financed Republican challengers including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Future Forward Pac, a pro-Biden Super Pac that can raise unlimited sums, has already booked $130 million in ads starting in September targeting the seven swing states and Nebraska’s one electoral vote in Omaha.