Tehran, Iran – Iran’s use of hundreds of drones and missiles aimed directly at Israel on Saturday evening and Sunday morning set a number of important political and military precedents.
It was the largest drone strike ever carried out by a country and was the first time Iran had directly attacked Israel since it was a sworn enemy for nearly half a century.
Here’s a look at what political, military and economic considerations Tehran may have taken into account when deciding to attack, which have heightened fears of a larger regional war and which could also influence the direction of Israel’s war on Gaza.
The politicians
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) called the operation “True Promise” to show that leaders in Tehran, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intend to make good on their vows of “punishment” for attacks by Israel and others.
The attack was in direct retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven IRGC members, including two generals responsible for leading operations in Syria and Lebanon and six other people.
It was primarily aimed at strengthening Iran’s deterrence, which critics say has been compromised by increasing confrontational politics and military strikes by the United States and its allies across the region, particularly after the assassination of top general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in January 2020 .
Iranian officials also appeared to have shown a degree of “strategic patience” after Razi Mousavi, another senior IRGC commander in Syria, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike in late December amid the fallout from the war in Gaza.
Inaction, low-quality attacks, or settling for military action through the “Axis of Resistance” of allied groups across the region would, in this sense, be viewed as too costly for Iran at home and abroad.
That’s true even as Tehran acknowledges that Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s embattled government could see benefits in escalating tensions in the region and forcing the U.S. military to take more action against Iran.
On the other hand, the unprecedented Iranian attacks may have briefly distracted the world’s attention from the deaths of tens of thousands of women and children in Gaza, but in the long term could result in a soft power gain for Iran in the Muslim world compared to other regional powers.
Saudi Arabia has not ruled out normalizing relations with Israel despite the carnage in Gaza, and Turkey only began restricting some exports to Israel earlier this week after the Israeli government refused to airdrop aid over the besieged enclave. in which infants starve. However, both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been deeply – and vocally – critical of Israel’s war on Gaza.
Iran would also have plausible arguments in the United Nations Security Council, since attacks on diplomatic missions constitute a violation of the Vienna Convention and Article 51 of the UN Charter enshrines the “inherent right” to self-defense, something Israel has been strongly advocating for since the beginning of Gaza. war.
A list of military firsts for Iran
There is no official confirmation from Iran about exactly how many drones or ballistic and cruise missiles it used to attack Israel, but the Israeli military said more than 300 were fired.
Iranian drones have been making international headlines for several years, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. Ukrainian officials say the Russian military’s Iranian-designed Shahed drones continue to rain down over their territory.
Shahed-136 kamikaze drones carrying a relatively small warhead weighing around 50 kilograms were used in the attack on Israel, Iranian state television said on Sunday.
Telegram channels affiliated with the IRGC said the attack also used the Shahed-238, which is powered by a turbojet rather than the Model 136 propeller. The 238 model sacrifices some maneuverability for significantly higher speeds, believed to reach up to 600 km/h (372 mph).
It has long been known that Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, but this was by far the biggest test of its capabilities.
State television said the long-range Emad ballistic missile and Paveh cruise missiles were used to attack Israel.
In February, the IRGC used Emad missiles and launched the Dezful ballistic missile from a warship in large-scale military exercises that included simulating an attack on the Palmachim air base in Israel.
Iran also has Fattah, a hypersonic ballistic missile that could theoretically arrive in Israel in just seven minutes, as well as a cruise missile variant of the same family. There was no evidence that the rockets were used in the attacks early Sunday.
Either way, in multi-pronged attacks spanning several hours, Iran has just managed to carry out its largest drone and missile strikes to date, covering some of its longest distances in a real military operation.
“The operation achieved a success that exceeded our expectations,” IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami said, adding that the projectiles only targeted military sites, including the Nevatim air base in the Negev Desert, which was allegedly responsible for the Israeli attacks was used for the Iranian consulate in Syria.
What are the economic impacts?
The impact of the historic attacks on Iran’s already struggling economy was likely less than the weight of political and military dimensions that were on the list of considerations by the Iranian leadership as they planned the offensive almost two weeks after the attack on the consulate.
But as expected, there was an immediate reaction in local markets, with foreign currencies rising as fears grew that the conflict could escalate further into a regional war.
The rial, Iran’s falling national currency, fell to a new all-time low of about 670,000 per U.S. dollar on Sunday before regaining some ground.
The semi-official news website Tasnim reported on Sunday that very few foreign exchange and gold transactions were taking place in Tehran and other markets as an atmosphere of caution prevailed.
Tehran prosecutors announced on Sunday that they had opened a case against an unnamed journalist and the newspaper they worked for, Jahan-e Sanat, for “disturbing the psychological safety of society and disrupting the country’s economic atmosphere.”