The suppression of pro-Palestinian student protests, the hush-money criminal trial against Donald Trump and political disputes over development aid and immigration have dominated the headlines in the United States in recent weeks.
The issues highlight deep divisions in the country as it approaches what is expected to be a heated battle for the White House between incumbent President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and his Republican predecessor, Trump.
But for most people in the United States, the presidential election on November 5th – exactly six months from Sunday – is not yet on their radar.
“In the United States, most people still haven’t tuned in. Despite you, me and the political class, the vast majority of Americans are not paying attention to the election,” said Erik Nisbet, a professor of political analysis and communications at Northwestern University.
“People don’t tune in until September,” he told Al Jazeera. “However, at this point it is important that you spread your narratives. It is important to consolidate and mobilize your own base.”
Perception of a “Choice 2.0”
Most polls show a tight race between Biden and Trump as the election approaches. Experts say the contest will likely depend on how candidates perform in critical swing states like Michigan, Georgia and Nevada.
But there is also widespread frustration that the election this cycle is the same as in 2020, when Biden defeated Trump and won the White House.
A recent Pew Research Center poll found that nearly half of all registered voters said they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot if they could.
About two-thirds of respondents said they had little or no confidence that Biden would be physically fit enough to be president, while a similar number said they did not believe Trump would behave ethically in office.
“It’s election 2.0,” said Jan Leighley, a political science professor at American University in Washington, DC
“I think that creates a disincentive to the election, which in turn impacts campaigns to convince people that even if it’s the same election, there’s still a reason to vote choose.”
Youth vote
For the Biden camp, the message so far has been: A vote for the Democratic incumbent is a vote for democratic ideals. “Democracy is on the ballot. “Your freedom is on the ballot,” Biden said in January.
But that message is not resonating with key segments of the Democratic base who are angered by the Biden administration’s clear support of Israel in the Gaza war.
The recent wave of pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses has highlighted a generational conflict in the U.S. relationship with Israel, which in turn could pose a serious problem for Biden as he seeks the youth vote in November.
In 2020, Biden won around 60 percent of voters ages 18 to 29.
But a recent CNN poll showed Biden trailing Trump 51 percent to 40 percent among voters under 35, and experts say a lack of enthusiasm among young voters could cause problems.
“We know how college students feel,” said Hasan Pyarali, the Muslim caucus chair of the College Democrats of America, the university arm of the Democratic Party.
“And I can tell you with certainty that there are too many who would stay home on November 5th” if Biden does not change his Middle East policy, Pyarali added. “I doubt people would switch to Trump, but they certainly wouldn’t vote.”
According to Northwestern University’s Nisbet, Biden’s campaign needs to focus in the coming months on “getting the Democratic house in order” before trying to appeal to the country’s relatively small number of undecided voters.
Any protests at the Democratic convention, for example, could harm him. Democrats will meet in Chicago in August to formally endorse Biden as their 2024 nominee.
“The Democratic Party, or at least the Biden campaign, doesn’t want dissension within the party [party] because it’s a bad picture,” Nisbet said.
Trump’s legal problems
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Trump’s campaign has unfolded against a backdrop of unprecedented legal turmoil.
The former president faces four separate criminal cases, including an ongoing trial in New York over allegations that he falsified business records related to a hush money payment to an adult film star.
While the charges have so far done little to dent Trump’s support among Republican voters, some polls suggest that a portion of the US electorate would not vote for him if he were convicted in any of the cases.
Trump is expected to be confirmed as the Republican Party’s 2024 nominee at the convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.
“The conventions take place over the summer, but there isn’t usually a lot of activity campaign-wise,” said American University’s Leighley.
But this year could be different, given Trump’s court hearings and pressure on Biden over the Gaza war. “These could be unusual bumps in the road, if you will, that provide an opportunity for campaigns to do more advertising,” she said.
Key issues
Both Leighley and Nisbet said the U.S. economy is always an important campaign issue and will continue to be a focus in the next few months of the campaign.
Despite positive economic indicators, many Americans believe they are worse off today than when Trump was in the White House, recent polls show.
“There’s a big gap where people, for whatever reason – it could be the economy, it could be memory bias – overall view Trump’s then presidency more positively than Biden’s current one,” Nisbet said.
He added that the economy is hurting Biden among Latino and Black voters and young people, all of whom represent important parts of the Democratic base.
“Trump will want to talk about how bad the economy is,” Nisbet said, while Biden’s team will instead “try to change the conversation” and move on to other topics.
This also includes access to abortion. Biden has made defending access to reproductive health care a central plank of his re-election campaign and has repeatedly condemned Trump and Republican Party lawmakers for supporting abortion restrictions.
In 2022, under Trump, the U.S. Supreme Court formed a conservative “supermajority” that allowed it to overturn Roe v Wade, a landmark 1973 ruling that established abortion access as a constitutional right.
Eliminating roe has been a conservative priority for decades, and several Republican-led states have since passed strict restrictions on abortion.
According to Leighley, “there will be a focus on the issue of abortion and Trump’s role in it, as well as the Republican Party and its plans” as the presidential campaigns inch closer to the fall months of September and October.
Debate schedule
Then the first debate between Biden and Trump could take place.
The Commission on Presidential Debates reiterated on Wednesday that the first televised face-off between the candidates would take place on September 16, confirming dates announced late last year.
The announcement came after Trump’s team urged the commission to move forward with the schedule.
There was uncertainty surrounding the 2024 debates, particularly because Trump avoided attending any debates during the Republican primary process. But last week both Biden and Trump said they were ready to do so.
“I honestly don’t know if either of them wants it, but it’s an American tradition — and I think it would be really damaging to American democracy if we didn’t have presidential debates,” Nesbit said.
“It is an important aspect of our tradition in the United States. And when presidential debates happen, even if they don’t change anyone’s mind – and that’s rare – I think it’s important that Americans hear both of their candidates at least state their views.”