A UK deal to harmonize veterinary standards with the EU could increase Britain’s agri-food exports to Europe by more than 22 percent, researchers say.
The estimate, published in a joint paper by Aston University and the University of Bristol, is based on an analysis of 279 previous trade agreements and export statistics from more than 200 countries. The study predicted that imports from the EU would also rise by 5.6 percent in the event of a deal.
The opposition Labor Party, which polls show is on track to win power in a general election expected this year, has committed to a new veterinary agreement as part of its plans to improve trade arrangements with the EU after Brexit Brussels to sign.
Jun Du, an economics professor at Aston University, said the U.K. was likely to feel the benefits of a veterinary agreement sooner than usual because it previously aligned itself with EU standards and has not made significant deviations from them since Brexit.
“Until recently, the UK had smooth agri-food exports to the EU. Therefore, it is possible that a supplementary veterinary agreement to reduce some of the tensions caused by Brexit could result in previously existing trade picking up quite quickly,” she said.
John Springford, associate fellow at the Center for European Reform think tank, said if the full 22.5 percent increase in exports were realized, it would result in an increase of around £2 billion in UK agri-food exports to the EU from 2023 Food exports worth £8.6 billion to the bloc.
“This is not nothing and would help UK food producers, but it is a small increase compared to the total export volume to the EU, which was £150 billion in 2023,” he added.
Since the UK left the EU, the UK food and drink industry has faced a range of border controls on its exports to the EU. The paper found that this contributed to a 5 percent decline in exports to its largest trading partner between 2019 and 2022, a period when exports to the rest of the world increased.
The food and drink sector employs a total of 4.2 million people in the UK, with global food, feed and drink exports totaling £25 billion in 2022, according to government statistics.
The ruling Conservative Party has ruled out seeking a veterinary deal with the EU, arguing that the UK must remain independent of the bloc’s rules to strike trade deals with other countries and reap the benefits of regulatory divergence with Brussels.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow cabinet minister expected to be put in charge of Labor’s promised resumption of Europe, confirmed his party would seek a veterinary deal but remain outside the EU’s single market and customs union.
“At a time when businesses and consumers are being hit so hard by the Tory economic chaos, Labor has said we will work to improve the UK’s relationship with the EU to deliver for the British people, including through the negotiation of a veterinary agreement,” he said.
Greg Messenger, a trade specialist at the University of Bristol and co-author of the paper, said it was unlikely that a British government would accept the kind of “dynamic” alignment seen in Switzerland’s agreement with Brussels largely all EU laws.
“Since we wouldn’t expect to eliminate all paperwork, we could both agree that our rules meet each other’s standards for plant protection. Since most of our rules are still essentially the same as the EU, no major change would be required,” he said.
All major British trade groups, including the British Chambers of Commerce and the Food and Drink Federation, the food industry lobby group, have called on the government to seek an improved veterinary agreement with the EU.
Balwinder Dhoot, director of growth at the FDF, said the group was interested in any discussion of a possible agreement, but warned that an agreement would involve compromises that would require careful management.
“Negotiating this would not be easy and would require both compromises and gains that would need to be carefully worked out with industry,” he said.