(Bloomberg) — South Africa’s fourth-largest political party expects the country will be run by a “grand coalition” if neither the ruling African National Congress nor an opposition bloc wins an absolute majority in next month’s election, and that its leaders will take part becoming the new cabinet.
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“There needs to be a new discussion, a new engagement between the political parties about how we can move the country forward,” if none of them receives more than half the votes, King Hlabisasaid the leader of the Inkatha Freedom Party in an interview at Bloomberg’s Johannesburg office on Thursday. “You have to see who can best form a grand coalition.”
Opinion polls suggest support for the ANC will fall below 50% in the May 29 vote for the first time since it came to power in 1994. This is a backlash over his failure to address high levels of poverty and unemployment, shoddy government services and recurrent power outages. Although the IFP, Democratic Alliance, ActionSA and eight other parties united under the Multi-Party Charter banner last year to achieve this goal, they are unlikely to be able to govern alone.
Under South African law, a new government must be formed within 14 days of the election being announced, otherwise a constitutional crisis may arise. A number of analysts have suggested that an ANC-IFP merger would be most natural.
A post-election coalition consisting of just two parties receiving just over half the vote would likely be unstable and unsustainable and should ideally include a broader grouping, Hlabisa said. The inclusion of the ANC would be welcome as it is a different party to the current one and is subject to checks and balances, he said.
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The IFP’s main goal is to “get a new government that will bring about change in our country,” Hlabisa said. “But if it doesn’t work out, you can’t afford for a country to stand still.”
He believes it is unlikely that the ANC will forge a pact with the left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters, the third largest party, as the two have struggled to work together at the local level.
The ANC and IFP fought an undeclared civil war in the eastern province of KwaZulu-Natal in the late 1980s and early 1990s, fueled by the apartheid government and claiming thousands of lives before a ceasefire was agreed. After the end of white minority rule, the two rivals shared power for a decade.
The IFP won 3.4% of the vote in the last national election in 2019 and 16% in its main stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal, the second most populous province. The party, which promotes federalism and a free market economy, has since made great strides, taking several local council seats from the ANC.
Hlabisa ruled out the possibility of the IFP swapping positions for its officials in KwaZulu-Natal and in return bringing the ANC back to power nationwide “through the back door” if the electorate rejects it.
He also downplayed the threat of electoral violence in KwaZulu-Natal.
“There are systems in place to ensure that peace and stability are maintained” and there have only been isolated incidents of violence so far, he said. “Whoever loses the election must respect the will of the people.”
– With assistance from Paul Richardson.
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