The highly anticipated first flight of Ariane 6 could finally take place this summer after years of delays. But before we can get too excited, European Space Agency Director General Josef Aschbacher is already preparing the rocket for failure without even reaching the launch pad.
During a panel discussion at the 39th Space Symposium held this week, Aschbacher pointed out that the probability of heavy-lift rockets experiencing a major anomaly during their first flight, European spaceflight, is 47% reported. Although he did not specifically refer to Ariane 6, the statement represents a major damper on the upcoming debut of the long-awaited heavy-lift rocket.
Ariane 6 has been in development for more than a decade. The 197-foot (60-meter) rocket is capable of delivering 10 tons to low Earth orbit, 4.5 tons to an altitude of 500 miles (800 kilometers), and more than 10.5 tons to Sun Synchronous Orbit (SSO). carry geostationary transfer orbits (GEO). The French company Arianespace is developing the rocket on behalf of ESA, and the Ariane 6 serves as its successor Ariane 5, now retired. The legendary rocket conducted its last flight in Julythus ending a 27-year career.
During that time, the Ariane 5 served as the European market’s primary vehicle to space, and without it, Europe is looking for rocket options that can carry its payloads into orbit. After Breaking off relations with Russia After the invasion of Ukraine, Europe was forced to stop relying on the Soyuz rockets for access to space. ESA recently turned to the US company SpaceX to deliver his Euclid telescope, the started on July 1, 2023 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket.
The initial launch of Ariane 6 was originally planned for 2020 and was later postponed to the end of 2022, mainly due to the Covid-19 pandemic and additional technical hurdles in its development. The rocket’s maiden flight was repeatedly delayed, so that an important test of the rocket’s upper stage in December 2023 was canceled after two minutes of engine ignition.
Arianespace did not release details of its investigation into the failed test. However, Ariane 6 is now expected to launch in June or July this year. Even if the rocket could take off this summer, Aschbacher’s comments remind us that success is hardly a 50-50 probability.
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