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British governments that expect to do poorly in local elections like to leak disaster scenarios in advance in the hope that they can later claim to have done better than expected. In fact, the results for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in polls in England and Wales on Thursday were as bad as they could have been. They leave the party heading for defeat in the general election, which must be held by January, leaving Sunak in a precarious position. They too are leaving the country in limbo, led by a government that appears to be at its end.
The end result presented a picture of almost unmitigated gloom for the conservatives. More than 470 council seats were lost, almost half of those they defended; The Blackpool South parliamentary seat lost to Labor in another huge by-election swing. They failed to win nine out of 10 metropolitan mayoral elections, including three newly created positions – one of which was supposed to be natural Tory territory. Their right-wing candidate lost in London to Labour’s Sadiq Khan, who won comfortably despite a mediocre record.
The Conservatives took comfort in the fact that Lord Ben Houchen remained mayor of Tees Valley. But the sometimes controversial Houchen distanced himself from his party and “forgot” his blue rosette during the counting. A strong personal brand and a string of local successes could not save the Tories’ Andy Street in the West Midlands, even if he outperformed his party’s national performance.
Street’s ouster capped a robust performance by the opposition Labor Party, marred only by the loss of council seats in some heavily Muslim areas due to dissatisfaction with its stance on the war in Gaza. The predicted national vote share was lower than in recent opinion polls, but Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership will be happy to use this as a call to supporters not to be complacent.
The Conservatives are in danger of drawing completely wrong conclusions from their defeat. A rumored far-right plot to topple Sunak initially appeared to have failed, although some rebels may be having second thoughts following Street’s defeat. Another change in leadership would actually be folly. Installing a fourth prime minister since 2019 would only convince more voters that the Tories, in power since 2010, have lost credibility.
The right is urging Sunak to push ahead with policies such as his failed plan to deport irregular migrants to Rwanda. They warn that the populist Reform UK party, founded by arch-Brexit supporter Nigel Farage, is gaining votes on the right. But this is a complete misreading of the Conservatives’ reasons for rejection: they are not seen as solving important issues for voters in the political center, including the cost of living and dismal public services.
A shift to the right could perhaps reclaim some territory for reform. But it would cost the conservatives in the center a lot more. The Tories who won, or almost won, in this election did so because local voters felt they delivered positive results for them. They did not offer small government and tax cuts, but active government supported by public spending. For many centrist voters, the Conservatives have regained their old reputation as an “evil” party, despite being ineffective. Doubling this is not a winning combination.
The message from the recent votes is that large parts of Britain are crying out for a new beginning. Sunak’s Conservatives may feel it is in their interests to hold out for a few more months before calling an election, in the hope that the economy and their fortunes will recover. This could, in theory, give them time to develop a more convincing election offer. However, such a delay is not in the country’s interest. The UK needs elections sooner rather than later and an end to the crippling sense of disorder and drift.