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Rishi Sunak’s sobering confrontation with the electorate continues on Saturday as the results of mayoral elections in some of England’s biggest urban areas are announced.
Sunak’s Conservatives have been under pressure in local elections across England and Wales and Labor is expected to record further victories, including the re-election of their regional mayors in Manchester and Liverpool.
But the British prime minister has weathered a controversial threat to his leadership from concerned Conservative MPs and is hoping for better news on Saturday in two key elections: West Midlands and London.
Labor officials privately admit West Midlands Conservative mayor Andy Street is likely to secure a third term in office, which would be a major boost for Tory morale.
Officials admit Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the Gaza war has cost the party support in the region as Muslim voters switched to pro-Palestinian independent Akhmed Yakoob.
Ellie Reeves, Labor’s deputy campaign coordinator, told the BBC: “We have to be honest, we have lost some support and we need to rebuild trust with these Muslim communities.”
There was also evidence that Susan Hall, Tory candidate in London, gave incumbent Sadiq Khan a scare. Turnout in the outer boroughs, where the Tories are strongest, was higher than in Labor strongholds in the inner city.
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Anything other than a win for Khan would be a major surprise – and one of the biggest poll failures in recent years – but even a close contest would be a boost for Sunak.
However, the overall picture for conservatives is bleak. The party lost about 400 council seats and the BBC calculated that its projected national vote share was 25 percent, a record low.
Labor also won the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election by a margin of 26 per cent over the Conservatives, the third-largest margin of this election since the Second World War.
Sunak tried to highlight the positive aspects of the vote in an article in the Daily Telegraph. “Thursday’s results showed voters are frustrated and wondering why they should vote,” he wrote.
“The fact that Labor are not winning where they think they need a majority shows that Keir Starmer’s lack of plan and vision is hurting them. We conservatives have everything to fight for – and we will, because we are fighting for our values and the future of our country.”
While Labor failed to beat the Conservatives in the hotly contested town of Harlow, Starmer’s party managed to pick up votes in areas it needs to win in the general election.
Starmer’s victory lap on Friday took him through Sunak’s parliamentary constituency of Richmond, part of the York and North Yorkshire mayoralty won by Labor.
The Liberal Democrats also eroded Conservative support in the “blue wall” of southern England, gaining control of Dorset and Tunbridge Wells, among other areas.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey claimed voters were turning away from the Tories because they were “tired of being taken for granted and let down”.
The Greens also did well in the local elections, winning over 50 seats and narrowly missing out on taking over overall control in Bristol with 34 of the 70 seats on the local council.
There was relief in Downing Street that Sunak had overcome the threat of a mutiny by Tory MPs, and the rebels admitted they must now stick with the prime minister until the general election.
Sunak’s allies feared it would have caused panic in the party if Lord Ben Houchen failed to retain the Tees Valley mayoralty on Friday. In the event Houchen won, the hardcore conspirators against Sunak went to the pub.