Wladimir Putin begins his fifth term as Russian president on Tuesday with a lavish inauguration at the Kremlin after destroying his political opponents, starting a devastating war in Ukraine and consolidating all power in his hands.
Putin has been in office for almost a quarter of a century and is the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Joseph Stalin. His new term does not end until 2030, when he can constitutionally run for another six years.
He has transformed Russia from a country emerging from economic collapse into a pariah state that threatens global security. After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has become Europe’s largest conflict since World War II, Russia has been heavily sanctioned by the West and is seeking support from other regimes such as China, Iran and North Korea.
The question now is what the 71-year-old Putin will do at home and abroad in the next six years.
Russian forces are gaining ground in Ukraine and using scorched earth tactics as Kiev struggles with a shortage of men and ammunition. Both sides suffer heavy losses.
Ukraine has transferred the fight to Russian soil through drone and missile strikes, particularly in border regions. In a speech in February, Putin pledged to fulfill Moscow’s goals in Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to “defend our sovereignty and the security of our citizens.”
Shortly after his arranged re-election in March, Putin hinted that a confrontation between NATO and Russia was possible and said he wanted to create a buffer zone in Ukraine to protect his country from cross-border attacks.
At home, Putin’s popularity is closely linked to improving the living standards of ordinary Russians.
He began his term in 2018 by promising to bring Russia into the world’s five largest economies and promising that it should be “modern and dynamic.” Instead, Russia’s economy has shifted to a state of war, and authorities are spending record sums on defense.
Analysts say that now that Putin has secured another six years in power, he could take the unpopular steps of raising taxes to finance the war and pressuring more men to join the military.
At the start of a new term, the Russian government is routinely dissolved so that Putin can appoint a new prime minister and cabinet.
One important area to watch is the Department of Defense.
Last year, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu came under pressure over his conduct of the war when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin issued scathing criticism of him over a lack of ammunition for his private contractors fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s brief rebellion in June against the Defense Ministry posed the biggest threat to Putin’s rule.
After Prigozhin was killed in a mysterious plane crash two months later, Shoigu appeared to have survived the power struggles. But last month his protégé, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, was arrested on bribery charges following reports of rampant corruption.
Some analysts suspect Shoigu could become a victim of the government reshuffle, but that would be a bold move as the war in Ukraine still rages.
In the years following the invasion, the authorities cracked down on any form of dissent with a ferocity not seen since the Soviet era. There is no sign that this repression will ease in Putin’s new term.
His biggest political enemy, opposition leader Alexei Navalny, died in an Arctic penal colony in February. Other prominent critics have either been jailed or fled the country, and even some of his opponents abroad fear for their safety.
Laws have been passed that threaten long prison sentences for anyone who discredits the military. The Kremlin is also targeting independent media, human rights groups, LGBTQ+ activists and others who do not adhere to what Putin has emphasized as Russia’s “traditional family values.”