(Bloomberg) – Rishi Sunak said this week he was putting Britain’s defense spending on a “war footing”. He might as well have been talking about his own position.
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Allies of the British prime minister described him as entering campaign mode in recent days ahead of the general election, which he must call by the end of January. A plan to tighten welfare rules, Parliament’s push through its flagship policy to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda and a pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2030 attracted front-page newspaper coverage.
There is even strong speculation, which Downing Street is trying to play down, that Sunak is preparing to announce the date for a national vote early next week in a bid to hijack the political agenda. On Friday afternoon, journalists, lawmakers and officials frantically texted each other, exchanging clues that an announcement was imminent – or not.
But another adviser more openly described the change of pace as “Operation Save Rishi” ahead of a more immediate test as the Conservative Party prepares for Thursday’s council and mayoral elections.
They have been considered a hotspot for months. Sunak’s internal Tory critics have warned that any result suggesting the opposition Labor party marches to power would trigger efforts to oust him. The recent flurry of activity has been partly about getting Sunak through the next week without a leadership challenge, members of his team said on condition of anonymity. They still expect a difficult time.
The Tories are defending just under 1,000 seats since the last vote in 2021, when the party received a boost from the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. The party’s national support has since fallen sharply, and Labour’s 20-point lead in the polls could mean a loss of half of those seats.
But even more focus is on the outcome of two mayoral elections in the West Midlands and the Tees Valley in northern England, where the Tories have Andy Street and Ben Houchen fight to stay in their roles. Both are seen as poster children for the Conservatives’ recent push into traditional Labor areas, and the loss of either would be seen by many in the party as a portent of national defeat.
Defeats by Houchen and Street would put Sunak in danger, an MP has warned. A group of Tories who claim to have gathered support for a leadership change are waiting for a moment to act. One minister described the cabinet as tired and at the end of its path.
Privately, Sunak believes Houchen can hold on and show that the Tories can still win in Labor areas, people familiar with the matter said. Street’s mayoralty is understood to be at stake, although he gave Sunak a boost by telling Bloomberg he wouldn’t blame the prime minister if he lost. The Conservatives expect Labor Mayor of London Sadiq Khan to win a third term relatively comfortably.
The Tories are likely to have a “bad night” but it won’t be an “overwhelming” victory for Labor, Tory politician and pollster Robert Hayward told reporters this week. That’s because Labor could be punished by some voters who criticize its stance on the Israel-Hamas war. That could play a role, especially in the mayoral election, he said, and possibly help Street and Houchen win.
Meanwhile, those agitating against Sunak are suggesting House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt as their preferred candidate, sharing polls with other MPs that show she is viewed positively by the public. But a Mordaunt ally said she would not resign or call for a leadership change after the May 2 vote, a position that appears to strengthen Sunak’s position.
Still, many of Sunak’s recent moves fit the idea of a prime minister trying to fend off attacks. Monday’s pledge that deportations of migrants to Rwanda would begin in 10 to 12 weeks allows him to appeal to his right-wing Tory critics for more time to get flights operational, an adviser said.
Rwanda policy is so central to Sunak’s strategy that some Conservative ministers and officials are openly speculating that he is considering calling a general election in July, around the time of the first flights. The reason for this would be to persuade voters tempted by the right-wing Reform UK party to stick to the Tories and Sunak’s promise to stop the arrival of migrants across the Channel.
A campaign slogan could be: “We will stop the boats, Labor will stop the flights,” said one staffer.
Sunak’s promise to increase defense spending, meanwhile, undermined a key selling point of Mordaunt, the adviser said. The Royal Navy reservist is a natural poster boy for the Tories, who are usually keen to strengthen the country’s military.
At the same time, Tory officials were pleased that Starmer did not immediately follow through on Sunak’s commitment to military spending, seeing it as an opportunity to target the opposition over national security. Labor, which has pledged to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP when public finances allow, accused the Tories of failing to show how they would pay for it.
More is promised, including attacks on Labor over its workers’ rights policies, to try to win back business leaders. One adviser praised it as Sunak’s best week in office, and another said it was his team’s first example of smart politics – although they also complained that it had not happened sooner.
Sunak’s office believes he has had a good week at a good time and that the plan to replace him before the general election is dead in the water. Some advisers want Sunak to name the date for the national vote now, something he has so far resisted. Downing Street had previously favored holding the election in the autumn, when inflation and interest rates have fallen.
Defense Secretary Grant Shapps praised the Prime Minister’s leadership in an interview with The Times and urged Tory MPs to allow Sunak to “get on with the job”. “The past week has shown that we have a very effective prime minister when it comes to taking care of the things that really matter,” Shapps said.
In a week it may be clearer whether this optimism is justified. At the moment, Sunak is trying to paint a picture of a government that is making progress. He went jogging with Russ Cook, an ultrarunner known on social media as the “Hardest Geezer” who had just run the length of Africa.
“It is not an easy time to be doing this job,” Sunak Cook said in a video posted by Downing Street. “But we carry on, right?”
– With support from Ailbhe Rea and Celia Bergin.
(Updates with Shapp’s comment in 19th paragraph)
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