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Israel has begun preparations to evacuate civilians from Rafah ahead of a long-awaited attack on the southern Gaza city, where the bulk of Hamas’ remaining forces and more than a million displaced people are concentrated.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted that Israel would launch a ground offensive in Rafah, arguing that without it it would be impossible to achieve his country’s goal of destroying Hamas.
However, his government came under international pressure over its plans: the US warned that a major operation in Rafah would be a “mistake” and insisted that civilians must be driven out of the city before a military operation was launched.
Senior Israeli officials have made clear that a large-scale military incursion into Rafah would not take place until the “strategic conditions” were set, including coordination with neighboring Egypt and the evacuation of civilians to safe zones equipped with emergency shelters, water , food and health care services.
Officials said civilians seeking shelter in Gaza’s southernmost city would be moved to areas “geographically close” to Rafah, including a coastal safe zone called Al-Mawasi, the town of Khan Younis and possibly central areas of the Strip.
According to official figures, Israel has purchased 40,000 tents in preparation for the evacuation from Rafah. But Israeli forces would not themselves set up the “humanitarian enclaves” where civilians would be sent to escape the fighting, an official said.
“It is no secret: there will be an operation in Rafah, humanitarian enclaves will be set up and we will bring innocent civilians there,” the official added. “It will take time and will require a concerted effort and extensive cooperation with the various international organizations.”
Another Israeli official said an evacuation of civilians from Rafah would be “a matter of weeks” and that the evacuation itself would take a similar amount of time. The War Cabinet is expected to discuss the issue at its meeting on Thursday.
But the United Nations has resisted any coordination with Israel to evacuate Rafah, according to two people familiar with the matter.
“[The UN] says Israel: ‘Don’t do that.’ They are not offering to help on behalf of the Israel Defense Forces,” one person said.
A second person said it was likely that the “humanitarian enclaves” would be set up by “local actors” from the Gaza Strip in the absence of Israeli soldiers and UN aid workers.
However, satellite data reviewed by the Financial Times showed that at least two new groups of tents – one on the northeastern outskirts of Rafah and another west of Khan Younis – had already been set up since Israel scaled back its operations in Gaza on April 7. It was not clear , from whom.
The Israeli military estimates that the last four remaining Hamas battalions are stationed in Rafah, as may be some of the Hamas leadership and the more than 130 Israelis still held hostage by the militant group.
Some analysts also said there was a need to wrest control of the critical border crossing with Egypt from Hamas, through which the group has traditionally smuggled weapons.
“You cannot leave the seeds of a Hamas military framework [in Rafah] “that can then grow up and take over Gaza again,” said Daniel Hagari, the IDF spokesman.
The IDF has significantly reduced its troop presence in the Gaza Strip in recent months and launched limited raids in the enclave’s northern and central regions to flush out remaining Hamas militants.
Both Israeli officials and analysts said a Rafah operation would be a significantly larger undertaking – but likely one that would mark the beginning of the end of the war.
After Rafah, “the high-intensity phase of the war is over,” said a person familiar with Israeli war plans.
People briefed on conversations with Israeli officials in recent days said the Jewish state believes it has received recognition from Western capitals for its restrained response to Iran’s attack on the country, giving it more leeway for his planned attack on Rafah.
An official said that while Israel thought it now had “recognition” for the limited attacks on Iran last week, it had not “fundamentally changed” the stance of Western countries toward a Rafah attack. “It will not be without consequences,” they added.
Israel’s moves to allow larger amounts of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip have helped take off the table, at least for now, the U.S. threat to condition its support for Israel, U.S. officials said. One suggested that this could change if Israel carried out a major operation in Rafah.
Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said Tuesday that he was “not aware of any detailed Rafah plan, any executable or credible plan that has been shared with us at this time.” But I know these conversations continue.”
Additional reporting by Jana Tauschinski in London