Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure to clarify his agenda after crushing local election losses on Thursday, but even critical Tory MPs said the immediate threat of a leadership challenge to the British prime minister had faded.
Early results on Friday suggested the Conservatives were on track for their worst result in council polls in 40 years, coupled with defeat in the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election, falling to Labor by 26 points.
However, in a gift to Downing Street the morning after polling day, one of Sunak’s most prominent Tory critics said it was “unlikely” that right-wing rebels could rally enough supporters to topple him.
Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the first Tory MP to publicly call for Sunak’s resignation last November, told the BBC it was “unlikely” the prime minister would face a vote of no confidence: 52 MPs will have to submit letters to trigger such a vote.
But she warned that voters gave Sunak a message at the ballot box on Thursday that said: “Wake up, be Conservative or we will lose.”
She called on the Prime Minister to pursue “radical” Conservative policies, urged him to initiate a cabinet reshuffle to attract more members of the right-wing Tory party, and added: “We need to find a role for Boris.” [Johnson].”
Another Tory MP said that despite the negative results so far, the majority of colleagues believe it would be “crazy” to replace Sunak.
Pointing to an unexpected win in Essex, the MP said: “We held on in Harlow where Keir Starmer made a fuss but didn’t win. This proves that some MPs will survive under Sunak and it puts a nail in the balloon for the conspirators to deflate it.”
Others on the right stressed it was too early to say whether the prime minister was safe and warned that many local and mayoral results had yet to be announced over the weekend. One of the small rebels had pointed out in the run-up to the elections that a clear picture would only emerge on Monday.
That view was echoed by former cabinet minister Justine Greening, who said Sunak was still at risk. Asked by Sky News if the prime minister’s position was safe, she said: “No, I don’t think he is. And I think many MPs will use the holiday weekend to reflect on what these results mean for their own communities and for them personally.”
Kwasi Kwarteng, the former Tory chancellor, insisted he did not personally support any proposal to replace Sunak, but told LBC Radio that some fellow MPs “might actually think we might as well roll the dice with a new leader”.
He added that the local elections had shown that “there is no such thing as a safe Tory seat anymore”.
However, in a decisive boost to Sunak, it was announced shortly after midday on Friday that incumbent Tory leader Lord Ben Houchen, the Conservative poster boy for promotion, had won the Tees Valley mayoral race – albeit with reduced majority.
Conservative officials also remained hopeful that the party would win the mayoral contest in the West Midlands and narrowly lose in the capital.
“If Sunak wins two and brings London closer, that will be a great result,” said one party insider, who argued the narrative would “flip” in the prime minister’s favor, thanks in part to expectation management.
Optimists within the party appealed to several bright spots amid the storm clouds, including Reform UK’s failure to push the Tories into third place in Blackpool South and the backlash against Labour’s stance on Gaza in areas with large Muslim populations.
But other Tory MPs were despondent, pointing out that the election results announced so far were largely in line with national opinion polls and confirmed the party was on track for defeat in the general election.
“It’s as bad as people think. But will it lead to a revolt? [against Sunak]? Probably not. The stark reality, however, is that we are hoping for a Labor government with a clear majority. “This means a number of cabinet ministers will lose their seats,” said a party insider.
On a practical level, Tory councilors tend to be crucial to the ground war in general elections – handing out leaflets and leading election campaigns. As a result, Conservative MPs fear that the loss of hundreds of MPs this week will lead to fewer or less motivated local campaigners ahead of the national election.
While Sunak now faces intense pressure from the right of his party to move in their direction, the moderate One Nation Tories made it clear they would ask him to tie himself to the center with attractive, mainstream policies.
“The votes that we can keep or win back cannot only be achieved through reform. Our message to him is: “You will do your best by maintaining the breadth of the church,” said one.
Another centrist MP expected rival Tory factions to make their case through a series of interventions and opinion pieces in weekend newspapers to openly display their disunity. “It’s all shadow boxing. “Ultimately, the narrative of the divided party will remain,” the MP said.
Influential Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie, co-founder of the ConservativeHome website popular with party loyalists, summed up many MPs’ views on The Tories continue on their path at their own peril.”