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Pedro Sánchez has thrown Spain into turmoil with his bombshell decision to take five days to decide whether he wants to continue as prime minister. But as the hours approach until Monday’s announcement of his future, the question isn’t just whether he will stay or go. It’s also about whether one of Europe’s smartest political tacticians has succumbed to emotional stress.
A judge’s preliminary investigation into his wife over allegations of influence peddling sparked Sánchez’s extraordinary response, which came in the form of an open letter published Wednesday asking: “Is it all worth it?”
“There is a collective state of shock,” said Máriam Martínez-Bascuñán, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Madrid. “We are speechless.”
Two extreme theories have emerged about the socialist prime minister’s decision, she said, neither of which flatters the prime minister. “It’s either childish narcissism or maximum Machiavellianism.”
Sánchez is regularly described as a ruthless schemer who led Spain for nearly six years thanks to a series of high-risk moves to eliminate internal rivals, defeat opponents and appease voters.
He was both an agent and a victim of the coarsening of Spanish politics, where even in a world of pervasive polarization the poisonous barbs and decay of decency are striking.
But Martínez-Bascuñán said, “It’s so hard to see what he got out of it that I think there’s some truth to the idea that it was a knee-jerk reaction to something that broke him.”
The nature of Sánchez’s letter reinforced this idea. He wrote it alone and it was only published on his personal X account. It bore no imprint of the Moncloa Palace, the Prime Minister’s Office. And it didn’t read as if it had been passed through the reassuring filters of any editorial consultant.
In it, he portrayed the investigation against his wife Begoña Gómez as the culmination of a years-long “harassment campaign” against him by the opposition People’s Party, the right-wing extremist Vox party and right-wing media. The investigation was triggered by a complaint from a campaign group made by a former right-wing extremist activist Founded.
“This attack is unprecedented and so serious and gross that it makes me stop and think,” he wrote. “I am not ashamed to say that I am a man deeply in love with my wife, who is powerless in the face of the dirt that is thrown at her day after day.”
Others struggled to accept that there was no political calculation at play. Toni Roldán, a former centrist MP now at Esade Business School in Madrid, said: “Although, given the situation, I understand the situation [Sánchez’s] Given his record and the fact that he is a very tough politician, it is hard to believe that he is only doing this because he is emotionally broken.”
One goal could be to maintain the moral high ground and get the opposing PP to back down. But the PP showed no signs of embarrassment. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the PP, spoke out sharply against Sánchez, saying: “You don’t hijack a nation to put it at the service of the Socialist Party’s strategy.” . There is no other European prime minister who has done something like this.”
On Friday, PP employees distributed a package of press reports about Gómez, detailing her alleged dealings with private companies that received state tenders or public funds. “It’s strange that they say there is no truth to all this information,” one said. In his letter, Sánchez described any alleged wrongdoing as “non-existent.” Gómez has not spoken about the allegations.
Another goal could be to use Sánchez’s cooling-off period to highlight the risks of a loss. His advisers pointed to the words of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who wrote on X after a conversation with the prime minister: “His strength and role are important for his country, for Europe and for the world.”
Sánchez’s own ministers urged him to continue speaking publicly. But Pilar Velasco, founder of the parliamentary news site Demócrata, did not see her letters as part of an attack pre-planned with the prime minister. “If we see that Pedro Sánchez’s ministers send messages through the media, it is because there is no internal discussion,” she said.
Despite his ability to surprise, Sánchez has three basic options on Monday. He could try to strengthen his position by undergoing a confidence vote in parliament. The best thing he could hope for would be a regrouping of the seven parties that gave him another term in office last November. However, this could pay off in Catalan regional elections on May 12, as it puts the hardline separatists who are part of his shaky national alliance in a difficult position.
The second option is to resign and appoint a new socialist leader, who would have to be confirmed as prime minister by the current parliament. If he has already decided on this path, the five days of reflection would actually be about “contacting his successor as head of government and putting everything in order by Monday,” said Pablo Simón, professor of politics at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
Sánchez would be proud to name Spain’s first female prime minister as his successor. The obvious candidates include Finance Minister María Jesús Montero and Environment Minister Teresa Ribera – both also deputy prime ministers – as well as Education Minister Pilar Alegría.
Although Sánchez also has the power to call parliamentary elections, the law did not allow him to do so until the end of May and they could not take place until July.
The third option is to announce that he will remain in power and go back to business as usual. But if the country were pushed to the margins, it would greatly anger Spaniards, Simón said. “It would be incredibly ridiculous.”