With his polite, urbane demeanor, decades of political experience and significant role in the anti-apartheid movement, you would expect it Cyril Ramaphosa to be able to confidently take on a second term as South African President.
But pollsters say Mr Ramaphosa’s African National Congress (ANC) could win less than 50% of the vote in elections later this month for the first time in 30 years.
The 71-year-old’s first term in office was marred by persistently high unemployment, persistent economic inequalities, widespread power outages and allegations of corruption.
This is far from ideal, especially for a man who is said to have aspired to the role of president since the ANC came to power in 1994.
Mr Ramaphosa was born near central Johannesburg in 1952 and experienced the injustices of the racist apartheid system from an early age.
His family was forcibly relocated to the township of Soweto when he was a young child – they were among millions of black South Africans relocated by authorities to remote, often economically disadvantaged reserves.
As a secondary school student, Mr Ramaphosa “confronted his school teachers when he felt they weren’t working hard enough,” his biographer Anthony Butler tells the BBC.
“He was very confident and popular,” adds Prof Butler.
Mr. Ramaphosa became involved in the black consciousness movement at university and endured two months of solitary confinement because of his activism.
In the 1980s he gained a reputation for being a thorn in the side of white mining bosses by leading the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) in one of the largest strikes in South African history.
He also joined the ANC and worked closely with Nelson Mandela to negotiate an end to minority rule in 1994.
When Mr Mandela became South Africa’s first black president, Mr Ramaphosa harbored ambitions to become his deputy.
However, this was not to be the case – he was overlooked, unlike the older Thabo Mbeki.
Discouraged, Mr. Ramaphosa took on the role of MP and played a leading role in drafting South Africa’s post-apartheid constitution, one of the most liberal in the world.
He later withdrew from the political scene and became a business manager, although he was very popular with the public.
“He was persuaded by Mandela and the others to take some time off. He was a relatively young man,” says Prof Butler.
As white businessmen tried to accommodate him, Mr Ramaphosa acquired shares in almost every key sector – from telecommunications and media to drinks and fast food (he owned the South African franchise of the US chain McDonald’s) to mining.
His ventures were extremely lucrative – by 2015 he was one of South Africa’s richest politicians, with a net worth of around $450 million (£340 million).
But Mr Ramaphosa’s reputation was damaged after police killed 34 workers at the Marikana platinum mine in August 2012 – the deadliest police operation since the end of white minority rule.
Because Mr. Ramaphosa was then a director at Lonmin – the multinational that owns the mine – he was accused of betraying the workers he once fought for, particularly after emails emerged showing that he had called for action against the miners for “devious criminal acts” – an apparent reference to their savage and violent attack.
A judge-led investigation cleared him of involvement in the murders but failed to completely remove the stain from his legacy.
The trade unionist-turned-tycoon had just begun his political comeback after being elected deputy leader of the ANC.
Two years later, he became South Africa’s vice president, legitimizing Jacob Zuma’s scandal-hit presidency.
But as Mr Zuma neared his two-term limit as ANC leader, Mr Ramaphosa entered the succession battle, positioning himself as the anti-Zuma candidate.
His promises to fight corruption were widely seen as a swipe at the man who remained his boss at the national level.
Mr Ramaphosa was the natural favorite for the top job, but the then-president threw his weight behind his ex-wife and former head of the African Union Commission, Miss Dlamini-Zuma.
A bitter contest ensued, with Mr Ramaphosa eventually defeating Ms Dlamini-Zuma to become ANC leader in December 2017.
Mr Zuma intended to remain South Africa’s president until the 2019 general election. But after intense pressure from ANC leaders – including Mr Ramaphosa – the embattled president was forced to resign.
After almost 25 years, Mr Ramaphosa’s long-held dream came true – MPs broke into song in Parliament as it was announced that he would succeed Mr Zuma as President of South Africa.
The new head of state used his first speech to take a stand against corruption, but soon became embroiled in a series of scandals of his own.
In 2018, Mr Ramaphosa told Parliament that he had not received campaign donations from a controversial local company during his bid to lead the ANC.
He later apologized and said he had been misinformed in the response.
That admission undermined Mr Ramphosa’s own anti-corruption efforts, but years later the Supreme Court rejected claims that he had deliberately misled Parliament.
In 2022, a long-awaited investigation exposed the looting of billions of dollars from South Africa’s treasury during Mr. Zuma’s presidency.
Mr. Ramaphosa was implicated in the findings, and investigators concluded that as Mr. Zuma’s deputy, he should have done more to stop the decline.
And just a few months later, before the dust had settled on that investigation, Mr Ramaphosa found himself at the center of another corruption scandal.
In June, the president was accused of hiding a $4 million (£3.25 million) cash theft from his Phala Phala game farm.
While the president denied any wrongdoing, he admitted that money hidden in his sofa was stolen in 2020.
He said the cash totaled $580,000 (£460,000), not $4 million, and that he had made the $580,000 by selling buffalo. An independent panel of legal experts led by a former chief justice said it had “significant doubts” about whether such a sale actually took place.
His opponents – both inside and outside the ANC – called for his resignation over “Farmgate” as Parliament considered whether or not to impeach him.
But ultimately the president won the support of the ANC leadership and remained at the top.
“He handled it quite well,” says Paddy Harper, a journalist for the South African newspaper Mail & Guardian.
“At this point, as we go into the election, [Farmgate] is not a big problem. I think issues like the water crisis, load shedding and unemployment are bigger threats.”
The ANC’s popularity has certainly suffered because of these problems, but political analyst Richard Calland tells the BBC that Mr Ramaphosa has been a “consistent, if not spectacular” president who inherited unfavorable conditions from the previous government.
“I think he was the leader we needed and the best leader available, despite his flaws, despite the fact that a lot of the metrics around the recovery of the economy, etc., are still negative,” he says.
The ANC’s manifesto for 2024 reflects this position. It highlights what the party sees as positive steps during Mr Ramaphosa’s time in office, such as South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the United Nations’ highest court.
During the months-long war on Gaza, Mr. Ramaphosa and his government remained steadfast in their opposition to the Israeli authorities.
In 2019, the president was praised for appointing a new cabinet in which, for the first time in the country’s history, half of all ministers were women.
From trade unionist to leader of one of Africa’s largest economies, Mr Ramaphosa’s career has been a catalog of contradictions, history-making moments and bitter struggles.
The ANC’s current struggle to maintain its popularity is insignificant. He persisted on the campaign trail, reminding his countrymen that he and the ANC had ended the scourge of apartheid three decades ago.
While touring the Eastern Cape, he told reporters: “Thirty years of freedom and democracy are worth celebrating. That’s why I say: let’s be proud South Africans and celebrate our successes… the successes far outweigh the challenges we face.”
