By Joan Faus
BARCELONA (Reuters) – Next week’s difficult elections in Catalonia will test the wisdom of recent political gambles by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who wants to use the vote to strengthen his power at the national level but risks inadvertently to awaken a dormant Catalan separatism.
Sanchez wants to wrest control of the wealthy region from separatists who have an outsized influence on Spanish politics in the May 12 vote. But if his Socialists perform poorly, the result could destroy his fragile parliamentary alliances in Madrid and undermine the stability of his minority government.
It could also lead to a resurgence of Catalan separatism seven years after triggering Spain’s worst political crisis in over 30 years.
Opinion polls predict a comfortable lead for socialist candidate Salvador Illa in the election, with the separatist party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which currently governs the northeastern region, and its tougher rival Junts tied for second place.
A victory would justify Sánchez’s conciliatory stance toward the region’s independence movement, which most recently included offering an amnesty to Catalan separatists in exchange for their support for his minority government in the Spanish parliament.
It could also reassure the prime minister that there was no anger among his supporters after some were alarmed by the amnesty offer. Sanchez also hopes to shore up support across the political spectrum after many Spaniards were shocked by the five-day break he took last month to weigh his possible resignation over what he said was a smear campaign aimed at him and his family by right-wing opponents.
However, if the Socialists fail to secure the 68 seats needed for a majority in the Catalan assembly and rely on alliances with other parties, possibly including right-wing rivals the People’s Party (PP), their victory could be a Pyrrhic one .
Junts has warned that such a deal with the PP would lead it to withdraw its crucial support for Sánchez’s national government, blocking the passage of the law in parliament in Madrid and ultimately making it untenable.
On the other hand, if the separatist parties experience a late surge in support and are able to bury old hostilities and unite, Sanchez would suffer the double blow of losing regional competition and seeing a separatist movement gain new momentum receives to advance their independence ambitions at the national level, especially when the victor is the exile Carles Puigdemont.
Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who fled to Belgium after leading a failed independence bid in 2017, is running for Junts and is aiming for a victorious return. The Spanish arrest warrant he faces over these events will be lifted by the amnesty, which is expected to come into force at the end of May or June.
SOCIALISTS RISE
An election in the Basque Country last month has already underscored the influence of regional politics on national government.
The Socialists won votes in this contest and will return as junior coalition partners to the moderate nationalist PNV, which in turn supports the national government.
In Catalonia, the Socialists are aiming to repeat a strong showing in the region in last year’s national elections, when they received more than twice as many votes as the second most popular party – the far-left Sumar – in a result that suggests a weakening of independence supporters.
This time, their goal is to get more than 40 seats in the 135-seat regional chamber, said Socialist campaign manager Lluisa Moret. The Socialists hold 33 seats in the current Catalan assembly, tied with the ERC, while the Junts have 32 seats.
At a recent rally, Illa, a quiet former national health minister whose campaign slogan is “unite and serve,” barely mentioned Puigdemont and didn’t even mention the amnesty, which polls show some Socialist voters oppose.
He pledged to leave behind a “lost decade” of separatism and focus on concerns such as climate change – a major problem for Catalonia, which faces water restrictions after a drought.
“Illa would be a good president because he believes in dialogue. Catalonia is at a moment when it wants reconciliation,” said 20-year-old rally participant David Carvajal.
Vicenc Redon, 71, said the amnesty law was intended to help mobilize voters for the Socialists, but warned that separatist sentiment could still be reignited if Puigdemont regains the presidency and launches a new push to break away from Spain.
BUSES TO FRANCE
Puigdemont said he plans to end his six-and-a-half-year exile in Belgium to attend Catalonia’s next swearing-in, even if the amnesty does not eliminate the risk of his arrest by then.
He is campaigning from across the border in southern France and Junts has arranged buses from Catalonia to his rallies in Argelès-sur-Mer. Puigdemont told Reuters he wanted to engage directly with voters rather than appearing on big screens.
But he acknowledged that it would not be easy to regain the trust of voters disappointed with his handling of the botched 2017 Declaration of Independence, and that any new independence effort would require “more shrewdness and better preparation.”
Columnist Josep Ramoneda said the election will show whether voters are nostalgic or tired of the legacy of 2017.
“It’s a total mistake and probably won’t be of much use to Puigdemont if he speaks with the statement ‘We’ll do it again’,” he said, saying Catalonia had changed.
(Reporting by Joan Faus, Editing by Aislinn Laing, William Maclean)