A corruption scandal involving allegations against Russia’s deputy defense minister has caused surprise and speculation among close observers of the Russian elite.
But it is not the allegations against Timur Ivanov – a close ally of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who is known for his lavish lifestyle – that are causing a stir. Instead, many are trying to figure out what his sudden arrest means in the power games at the heart of the Kremlin.
The arrest was announced last week by the Russian Investigative Committee. Ivanov was arrested on suspicion of accepting bribes. He will remain in custody until at least June.
During Wednesday’s court hearing, the once-powerful figure appeared in a glass cage, still wearing his army uniform.
The Moscow City Court’s official Telegram channel said in a press release after the hearing that Ivanov had been accused of “receiving bribes on a particularly large scale,” which could result in him facing up to 15 years in prison. The court notice also says Ivanov entered into “a criminal conspiracy with third parties” to commit a crime and accuses him of receiving bribes in the form of services that were the result of “contracting and subcontracting work for the “Needs of the ministry” are defense.”
Several other people were arrested in connection with the investigation, including construction chief Alexander Fomin, who is accused of bribery in connection with Ivanov’s case, according to a separate press release on the Telegram channel of the Moscow City Courts.
Ivanov has denied bribery allegations against him, his lawyer told state media. The Moscow City Court will hear his appeal on May 8.
The case follows years of work by late opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and other Russian journalists investigating the sources of Ivanov’s wealth.
Asked about a report by a prominent Russian journalist that Ivanov may face more serious charges of treason, the Kremlin urged reporters not to speculate about the case and to rely on “official information” from investigators.
With few public details about the case, the widening investigation is sparking a plethora of theories among Russian media and analysts: Were the charges brought on the orders of the boss, President Vladimir Putin? Or could it be the result of a struggle for influence over his war in Ukraine?
Many observers agree that Ivanov’s legal problems could portend an uncertain future for his former boss Shoigu, the defense minister responsible for Putin’s war.
The move against one of his closest allies could point to divisions between rival “clans” in Russia’s elite, vying for influence and wealth amid the new realities of a country at war.
“Influential groups vying for power are now attacking each other even more aggressively than before the war, and it is no longer just individual players or smaller representatives of the various clans who are at risk, but also central figures,” the Russian journalist wrote Andrey Pertsev an analysis for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Pertsev argues that Ivanov’s arrest appeared to have blindsided Shoigu, who had been seen meeting with him just hours earlier.
Shoigu’s position as defense minister appeared to be in jeopardy at the end of 2022 after several successful Ukrainian counteroffensives and embarrassing Russian withdrawal attempts. The failures sparked intense criticism from Russia’s influential military bloggers, particularly the late Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the dispute culminated in Wagner’s armed march on Moscow last June.
But the uprising was short-lived and Prigozhin is now dead. Shoigu eventually emerged and has prospered ever since, with the Russian army making progress in recent months despite delays in Western military aid.
“I note that over the last six months to a year, Shoigu has regained his position in Putin’s eyes and has become noticeably closer to him, quite successfully managing the flow of information reaching the president on military affairs,” the wrote political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya on her Telegram channel on the night of Ivanov’s arrest.
So far, Shoigu has remained silent about the scandal, but the day after his arrest he officially dismissed Ivanov from his position, state news agency Tass reported. Ivanov’s profile has been missing from the Defense Ministry website since Monday.
But little happens in Russia, especially among such high-ranking officials, without at least Putin’s tacit approval.
And the timing of the scandal’s sudden public outburst seemed remarkable to many analysts.
Putin will be sworn in for his fifth term as president on May 7. A government reshuffle is expected in the following days, which could offer Putin’s chance to bring in new faces or open the door to old faces – like Shoigu.
“Ivanov is one of the people closest to Shoigu,” Abbas Gallyamov, a Russian political analyst and former Putin speechwriter, wrote on Telegram. “His arrest on the eve of the appointment of a new government suggests that the current minister’s chances of remaining in the chair are plummeting.”
However, others pointed out that if Putin really wanted to, he could fire Shoigu at any time, without the need for a public performance of Ivanov’s imprisonment.
“Even if this is a message to Shoigu, it is unlikely that Putin is ready to fire him,” Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told NBC News.
This would mean that the war in Ukraine was not going according to plan, Kolesnikov said, and that Putin was wrong about Shoigu.
“Rather, this is a message to the elites – no one is irreplaceable, one must behave more modestly during our holy war with the West – and to the general public: the regime fights corruption not with words, but with deeds,” he added.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com