When the 2024 Tony Award nominations are announced tomorrow morning, close races and sharp arguments are likely. With so many shows opening in the past two weeks, nominators may still be clearing their heads – and perhaps taking a moment to eat and breathe – as they continue to reflect on the 36 productions between April 28, 2023 and April 25, 2024.
Some of the nominations are self-evident: The highly praised and extremely popular ones We roll along happily is a safe choice for everyone involved, but how about more polarizing food? Cabaret, Here lies love, water for elephantsI’m looking at you.
A selection of categories will continue reading live CBS Morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, and a full livestream of the announcements will follow at 9:00 a.m. ET on the official Tony Awards YouTube page.
So here are my predictions and thoughts on the shows I think will be competing for the Tonys on June 16th, and some that I hope make the cut. (The entire list of eligible 2023-2024 Broadway productions can be found at the bottom of this post.)
BEST MUSICAL
Shaina Taub is brilliant EnoughAlicia Keys’ joyful Hell’s Kitchen and the exciting dance-music hybrid collaboration between Sufjan Stevens and Josh Peck Illinois are – or should be – safe bets. I’m less sure about the last two slots, but I’m sticking with them Days of wine and roses, a beautiful, understated but harrowing story about alcoholism during New York’s Mad Men era. And during Lempicka was an uneven account of the sadly forgotten 20th century artist Tamara Lempicka, and had more than enough moments to keep you going.
Placeholder: The Outsiders, Water for Elephants, The Notebook, harmony
BEST GAME
Stereophonic, David Adjmi’s brilliant deconstruction of a rock band, a fading music scene, a dying love and, well, a generation enjoying (or not) its final giggly peak, probably already has its backstage nomination badge laminated and attached to a lanyard. Joshua Harmons Prayer for the French Republicwas a remarkably moving and incredibly relevant family drama about the Holocaust and its lasting lessons. I can’t imagine two more unlikely contenders for a single award, nor two other shows equally deserving. Other likely nominees: Jaja’s African hair braiding, Mary Jane, And Mother game.
Placeholder: Patriots
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
An easy category to choose: We roll along happily is the top choice (and likely Tony winner), followed by The Who is Tommy, the mediocrely received but much praised Cabaret at the Kit Kat Clubthe fan favorite Gutenberg! and the nostalgic The Wizard everyone in line for a shot. Six months ago I would have said Monty Python’s Spamalot was a blast, but the lackluster box office makes me lament the state of a youth who doesn’t worship at the altar of Python.
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
Suitable And Purlie Victorious are as safe as nominations get, while star power should work its magic on shows that haven’t been as widely celebrated (An enemy of the people had Jeremy Strong and Michael Imperioli; Uncle Vanya starring Steve Carell and Alfred Molina; And Doubt with Liev Schreiber and Amy Ryan.
Actor in a Leading Role (Musical)
Jonathan Groff (We roll along happily) And Brian D’Arcy James (Days of wine and roses) are locks as they are Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club). I would add Andrew Rannells (Gutenberg!) And Ali Louis Bourzgui (Tommy), as well as. I didn’t particularly like Redmayne’s nervous performance and I would be just as happy with it Casey likes (Back to the Future) or Grant Gustin (Water for elephants).
Actor in a leading role (drama)
Leslie Odom Jr. (Purlie Victorious) is a safe bet with Jeremy Strong (An enemy of the people), Steve Carell (Uncle Vanya), Liev Schreiber (Doubt) And Michael Stuhlbarg (Patriots) will probably do it. My preference would be William Jackson Harper (Uncle Vanya) about anyone but Odom.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (MUSICAL)
Kelly O’Hara was exalted in Days of wine and rosesAnd Maleah Joi Moon made an unforgettable Broadway debut Hell’s Kitchen. Shaina Taub is a joy Enoughalternately tender and chewy. Gayle Rankin will likely get a nomination for her controversial role as Sally Bowles cabaretand Eden Espinosa delivered a good old-fashioned performance Lempicka.
Placeholder: Eva Noblezada was the bright spot in an otherwise misguided situation The Great Gatsby, but I’m afraid she’s going against the tide this time.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (PLAY)
Sarah Paulson is an eye-catcher for Suitableas well as Rachel McAdams (Mary Jane), Jessica Long (Mother game) And Betsy Aidem (Prayer for the French Republic). Amy Ryan could slip in Doubt (She took over from the ailing Tyne Daly).
Placeholder: Tatiana Maslany and Laurie Metcalf (Gray house)
ACTOR IN A HIGHER ROLE (MUSICAL)
Daniel Radcliffe is a lock for CheerfulAnd Steven Skybell, when the Jewish merchant Mr. Schultz delivered the most sympathetic performance cabaret. Brandon Victor Dixonwith limited stage time in Hell’s Kitchenwas unforgettable, and Michael Urie was the funniest performer in a very fun time Spam. I also predict Paul Alexander Nolan for Water for elephantsbut I would rather see it Ben Cook Take the place for his debilitating turn Illinois.
ACTOR IN A SELECTED ROLE (PLAY)
Corey Stoll (Suitable), Michael Imperioli (An enemy of the people) And Eli Yellow (Stereophonic) seem more than likely, and although I suspect so Will Keenwho played Putin PatriotsAnd Alfred Molina (Uncle Vanya) nominations, I’d rather see Will Brill and Tom Pecinka, both of them Stereophonicin these slots.
ACTRESS IN A HIGHER ROLE (MUSICAL)
I go with Linsday Mendez, We roll along happily; Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret; Shoshanna BeanHell’s Kitchen; Nikki M. James, Enough; And Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot.
Placeholder: Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen; Jenn Colella, Enough; Amber Iman, Lempicka.
ACTRESS IN A HIGHER ROLE (PLAY)
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious; Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic; Celia Kenan Bolger, Mother game; Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic; Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic.
Placeholder: Brittany Adebumola (Jajas African hair braiding); Nancy Robinette (Prayer for the French Republic); Brenda Wehle (Mary Jane); Zenzi Williams (Jajas African hair braiding)
BEST BOOK
booze, Shaina Taub; hell’s kitchen, Christopher Diaz; IllinoisJustin Peck, Jackie Sibblies Drury; Days of wine and rosesAdam Guettel; LempickaCarson Kreitzer
BEST RESULT*
booze, Music and lyrics by Shaina Taub; Days of wine and roses, Music and lyrics by Adam Guettel; This is where love liesMusic by David Byrne and Fatboy Slim, lyrics by Byrne; stereophonic, Will Brill; LempickaMusic by Matt Gould and lyrics by Carson Kreitzer.
*Neither The Who’s Tommy nor Sufjan Stevens’ Illinois is eligible in the original score category.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Justin Peck, Illinois, Julia Cheng, cabaret; Lorin Latarro, The Who’s TommyCamille A. Brown, Hell’s Kitchen; Jacqueline Knight, The Wizard
DIRECTOR (PLAY)
Lila Neugebauer, Suitable; Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious; Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic; Sam Gold, An enemy of the people; Whitney White, Jajas African hair braiding
DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)
Maria Friedman, We roll along happily; Des McAnuff, The Who’s Tommy; Rebecca Fracknell, cabaret; Leigh Silverman, Enough; Justin Peck, Illinois
FULL LIST OF ELIGIBILITY SHOWS FOR THE 2023-2024 BROADWAY SEASON:
Gray House (Lyceum Theater)
Once Upon a Time (Marquis Theater)
Here Lies Love (Broadway Theater)
The Cottage (Hayes Theater)
Back to the Future: The Musical (Winter Garden Theater)
The Shark Is Broken (John Golden Theater)
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Tour of the Cotton Patch (Music Box Theater)
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding (Samuel J. Friedman Theater)
We Roll On Happily (Hudson Theater)
Gutenberg! The musical! (James Earl Jones Theater)
This is what I need (Todd Haimes Theater)
Harmony (Ethel Barrymore Theater)
Spamalot (St James Theatre)
How to Dance in Ohio (Belasco Theater)
Appropriate (Belasco Theater)
Prayer for the French Republic (Samuel J. Friedman Theater)
Days of Wine and Roses (Studio 54)
Doubt (Todd Haimes Theater)
The Notebook (Gerald Schoenfeld Theater)
An Enemy of the People (Circle in the Square Theater)
Water for Elephants (Imperial Theater)
The Who’s Tommy (Nederlander Theater)
The Outsiders (Bernard B. Jacobs Theater)
Lempicka (Longacre Theater)
The Magician (Marquis Theater)
Suffs (music box theater)
Stereophonic (John Golden Theater)
Hell’s Kitchen (Shubert Theater)
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club (August Wilson Theater)
The Heart of Rock and Roll (James Earl Jones Theater)
Patriots (Ethel Barrymore Theater)
Mary Jane (Samuel J. Friedman Theater)
Illinoise (St. James Theater)
Uncle Vanya (Vivian Beaumont Theater)
The Great Gatsby (Broadway Theater)
Mother Play (Hayes Theater)