August 2, 2022
The following views are my own and do not constitute financial advice, nor an offering to invest in Buckman Capital or any other entity mentioned throughout this article.
Gm everybody, today we will continue the tradition of doing technical analysis every Tuesday. We will only look at BTC and ETH as I feel those coins tell the story of the general landscape of cryptocurrency, as well as DeFi. So, without further ado, let’s jump right into it.
Starting off, let’s take a look at the BTC weekly from Kraken. As you can see, we still have yet to clear the 13 SMA, which now sits at $24,689. BTC has tried to clear that level 3 weeks in a row now and has yet to get the legs to push through, which is a bearish indicator in my opinion. Our RSI is also showing a slight sign of it rolling over and respecting the trend line it has followed since late 2021. I also drew another trend line on the chart this week. Based on what we see currently I am expecting Bitcoin to push back up to the 13 SMA, get rejected, and then fall to sub $20,000. If we push back up to the 13 SMA and close above it, however, the bulls will be back in full force and sending the price to the upper bound of the logarithmic growth cure as well as the trend line drawn, which sits at $32,171. The moment of truth, in my opinion, is what will happen at either of the following points:
- At the 13 SMA ($24,689) — If we break through it, we also break many of the trend lines drawn on our chart, which is significantly bullish.
- At the upper bound of the logarithmic growth curve ($32,171) — If we break through the 13 SMA, I see this as being a strong resistance level.
Zooming into our daily BTC chart, it seems as though price action is telling a different story than that of the weekly. Over the past week we have successfully bounced off of the 34 SMA and pushed above the 13 SMA, now retesting the 13. If we get a clean bounce off of the 13 SMA in the coming days, I would be much more comfortable with the theory of BTC pumping to $32,171 in the coming weeks. Our RSI is not really telling any story, other than the fact that we have gone from somewhat oversold to somewhat overbought.
Looking into Ethereum, we are seeing a mmuch more positive picture than we do with the BTC weekly chart. ETH has successfully overcome the 13 SMA and is now eyeing the upper bound of our logarithmic growth curve which sits around $1,980. We also have retested the 13 SMA after breaking through it, and still currently sitting above, which is bullish in my opinion. One major note here, though, is that ETH is currently sitting at the 2018 all time high right around $1,650, so this is a fairly heavy resistance ETH will have to overcome to push back above $1,980 and eventually $2,000. As for the RSI, we are still within the downtrend it has carved out since late 2021, so I am watching for a breakout there as well as the 2018 ATH to confirm my bullish sentiment.
The ETH daily tells quite a similar story to the BTC daily chart, nothing super crazy to note here. We are getting very close to the upper bound of our logarithmic growth curve and are wedged between that and the 13 SMA. This leads me to believe we will see a sizeable move in the coming days in regard to ETH. In which direction, I am not entirely sure. If I were to make a prediction, I would predict it to be downward due to the price being at the 2018 ATH and the RSI flirting with the oversold area.
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