10.9 C
Los Angeles
Sunday, March 26, 2023
HomeCrypto'Insane evidence' Bitcoin has...

‘Insane evidence’ Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months — analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is providing overwhelming evidence that it is capitulating, and it is time to flip bullish as a result, new analysis believes.

In a Twitter thread on Aug. 3, Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto asset manager Capriole, revealed what he called the “The 12 Bitcoin Capitulations.”

“Risk-returns skewed positively” for Bitcoin

With BTC price action recovering from multi-year lows but still hovering near key bear market support, opinions vary widely as to what will happen next.

Some are demanding a return to levels even lower than June’s $17,600 trough, while others argue that a “bear market relief rally” could take BTC/USD as high as $40,000 first.

For Edwards, the raw evidence suggests that the past months have been bearish enough, and that behind the scenes, Bitcoin has been quietly capitulating.

“The raw count of evidence for major Bitcoin capitulation today is insane,” he wrote about his twelve key examples.

“Each occurrence alone is a rare event and adds to the probability that forward risk-returns are skewed positively.”

In addition to popular on-chain signals previously covered by Cointelegraph including MVRV and NUPL, Edwards’ evidence includes macro triggers such as poor United States equities performance and stagnant M2 money supply growth.

“We have just seen the _worst_ inflation-adjusted downdraws in traditional markets in the last 8 generations. Enough said,” he continued, noting that the S&P 500 had delivered its worst returns in real terms since 1872.

S&P 500 returns annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter

The cherry on the cake in the 2022 Bitcoin bear market, however, is the rate at which industry players themselves have capitulated.

For Edwards, bankruptcy events at Celsius, Voyager and others, combined with Tesla selling the majority of its BTC holdings at a loss, is the “ultimate sign of capitulation.”

“Take a look at the level of institutional capitulation here,” he commented.

“Leverage is one of the best indicators for relative over- and under-valuation in Bitcoin, and many major leveraged crypto institutions have been wiped out.”

According to separate data from monitoring resource Bitcoin Treasuries, Tesla remains the public company with the second-largest BTC reserves but is now far behind leader MicroStrategy and its 129,698 BTC stack.

Public companies’ Bitcoin holdings as of Aug. 4 (screenshot). Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

“Great accumulation zone” returns

As Cointelegraph recently noted, capitulation has also been apparent among Bitcoin miners since the dip to the lowest prices since late 2020.

Related: Historically accurate Bitcoin metric exits buy zone in ‘unprecedented’ 2022 bear market

After initially selling their BTC inventory, however, miners have staged a dramatic about turn, new data suggests, in yet another sign that the worst of the capitulation may already be over.

Beyond miners, the amount of the BTC supply being transferred at a lower price than that which was paid for it has hit levels Edwards says are indicative of accumulation.

Bitcoin % supply transferred at a loss annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter

“The percentage of total supply transferred at a loss hit 1.9% last month,” he wrote alongside a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

“Historically, when this metric breaches 1.5% it demonstrates that a large portion of the market is in pain. Most were also great accumulation zones.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source link

Most Popular


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

More from Author

Ari Lennox Shares ‘Princess And The Frog’ Video Audition

Ari Lennox revealed her fans were heartbroken late last year age gender location tourism Will be her last. "I love my loyal fans so much and can't wait to give you my all every night!!" she wrote on social media. "Europe, I love you, but...

DefiLlama resolves internal conflict, quelling ‘hostile takeover’ accusations

Decentralized finance (DeFi) analytics platform DefiLlam has resolved an internal conflict that threatened to result in a “fork” of the platform. The issue was first raised by developer 0xngmi, who claimed on Twitter on March 19 that DefiLlama was "subject to a hostile takeover" for launching a token...

Sifflet raises cash to expand its data observability platform

Organizations working with large amounts of data often struggle to ensure that data remains high quality. According to a research from Great Expectations, which creates open source data testing tools, 77% of companies have data quality problems and 91% believe that this affects their performance. With this...

Matt Kuhnemann gets ‘awesome tips’ from Ravindra Jadeja

Ravindra Jadeja he is a man of his word. India allrounder promised Australia spinner Matt Kuhnemann masterclass after the Border-Gavaskar series - and he did just that.Soon Fourth exam in Ahmedabad ended in a draw on Monday, Jadeja took time to speak to the Australian visitor....

At Ukraine’s front, police try to evacuate holdout families

AVDIIVKA, Ukraine -- Pale and grimy from living in a damp, dark basement for nearly a year, the crying teenager and her mother emerged to the sound of pounding artillery and made their way to a waiting armored police van that took them into salvationRussian forces were...

Rabbit Hole Cast Had No Idea About The Show’s Twists Until The Very End [Exclusive]

Meta Golding also came as a bit of a surprise to co-star as Hayley Winton in the series alongside Kiefer Sutherland. she told me: "When I first got the script, I think I had two episodes. At that point, I didn't even understand if she was good or...

Will Amazon Or Apple TV + Offer The Pac-12 Deal They Can’t Say No To?

By Jim Williams If we're to believe what we're reading in the trade press, the new Pac-12 media deal with ESPN, Amazon Prime Video, and Apple TV+ remains on the table. What we've been reading in the tea leaves is that potential conversations are heavy on distribution...

Abdur Rehman to be Pakistan’s head coach for Afghanistan T20Is; Umar Gul named bowling coach

Pakistan mentioned Abdur Rehman as a long-time principal and Umar Gul as the bowling coach for the three T20I matches against Afghanistan. Mohammad Yousuf and Abdul Majeed will continue as batting coach and player, respectively.Rehman is an experienced homework trainer with more than ten years of experience...

Ari Lennox Celebrates Sobriety With Splits In A Sexy Dress

go through Kay Lewis Posted on March 21, 2023 1:00 amAli Lennox released a series of Behind-the-scenes A picture was taken before she hit the stage, and they were kind of spooky. Ari Lennox Bling The singer wore what appeared to be gold coins, held together...

Arbitrum token finds its way to OTC market before the airdrop

The Arbitrum community has been speculating and selling its unissued ARB tokens in the over-the-counter (OTC) markets following Arbitrum's announcement. Arbitrum Foundation announced that ARB, Arbritrum's new token, will be released to eligible community members on Thursday, March 23rd. It was explained that ARB Marks Arbitrum's...