Gaza lies far from the scenic foothills of the Yorkshire Dales, but the issue could have a decisive influence on the British general election in northern England, with many local Muslims angry at the Labour Party’s stance.
Although Labour is expected to win an overwhelming national majority on July 4, party leader Keir Starmer’s refusal to support an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza has caused a rift with once-loyal Muslim supporters.
This rift could affect the outcome in marginal constituencies with high Muslim populations, such as Keighley and Ilkley in Yorkshire.
About four in five Muslims in the United Kingdom voted for the Labour Party in 2019, strengthening historical ties that developed following the mass immigration of workers from Pakistan in the 1950s and 1960s.
But recent opinion polls suggest that around one in five of these voters will defect, which would further weaken the country’s traditional voting blocs.
“It is certainly an issue … but I am very confident that as the campaign continues I will retain a large proportion of the Muslim vote where it is a particular concern,” said Labour candidate John Grogan at his campaign office in Keighley, surrounded by boxes of “Vote Labour” posters and flyers.
“Here in Keighley the mosques are taking a neutral position. In some towns in the north of England the mosques are saying ‘don’t vote for any of the major parties’,” he told AFP.
A lively debate on the doorstep during the election campaign revealed the depth of feeling. Grogan stressed to a local resident that if Labour were in power they would “respect the power of the International Court of Justice” and recognise a Palestinian state.
He also stressed that he voted against the Iraq war during his time as a member of parliament in 2003.
“But Keir Starmer will be your leader. Whatever Keir Starmer says, follow,” said the sceptical voter, who wished to remain anonymous, from his front door.
“The only person speaking at the moment is George Galloway,” he added, referring to the veteran, fiery politician who was recently elected to a similar constituency on a candidacy based on the issue.
“Well, he’s not going to get anywhere, mate,” Grogan replied. “I want to be in Parliament the day Britain, France and Germany recognise a Palestinian state. We are determined to do that.”
While he lost support among a section of the Muslim community, others pledged their support to Grogan as he campaigned in the streets, backed by a Bengali cricket team.
– “Very, very angry” –
In theory, the Conservatives could hold on to their seat if enough voters leave the Labour Party and switch to other candidates, such as independent Vasim Shabir, who has made Gaza the centrepiece of his campaign.
“Gaza has mobilized many people who were either politically apathetic or politically asleep,” Shabir told AFP outside a kebab shop in the city center where his campaign flag was flying.
“We want to cause trouble. I want to change the election,” he added, explaining that his aim was to prevent a Labour victory.
Lawyer Shaid Iqbal, a leading figure in the city’s Muslim community, said people were “very, very angry.”
“They are angry at both parties. But in fact they are angrier at Labour because they thought Labour was a party that stood up for human rights and spoke out against atrocities,” he added.
“You have disappointed the public.”
Labour strategists said the issue cost them votes in May’s local elections, but disappointment with the ruling Conservatives is so great that the party is still expected to win in Keighley and Ilkley.
However, Shabir said demographic differences within the Muslim community meant the relief for Labour could only be temporary.
“The older generation, who don’t have access to TikTok and social media, are still quite loyal to Labour,” he said.
“The younger generation, the British-born Pakistanis and Bengalis in this constituency, the vast majority do not want to vote for Labour.
“I think they will lose votes for the next generation,” he said, adding that there were “a lot of discussions” among independent candidates about forming a new party.
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