For Sheinbaum, the Rise and Fall of Rousseff is a Cautionary Tale

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(Bloomberg) — Picture this: A highly popular president who is unable to seek re-election tries to cement his legacy by appointing a more technocratic successor as the country’s first female president. That’s a brief summary of the rise of Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum.

The same was said of Dilma Rousseff when she ascended to Brazil’s highest office in 2010, after eight successful years of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in office. Today, it is Sheinbaum who is expected to follow in the footsteps of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Sunday’s election.

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The parallels between Sheinbaum and Rousseff are largely a product of the striking similarities between Lula and AMLO. Both built their political identities as the voices of the poor and working class, both finally won the election on the third attempt, and both built a unique brand around their personalities by the end of their presidencies.

These two populist leaders in Latin America’s two largest economies have acted as mentors to female protégés – Rousseff, 76, is an economist and former revolutionary. Sheinbaum, 61, is a scholar and former student activist.

“They are both considered less charismatic and have a more technical education,” says Anya Prusa, partner and Brazil analyst at the Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington. “These are the challenges that both women have had to overcome.”

That’s where the analogies end, because Rousseff’s presidential career ended in disgrace while Sheinbaum’s hasn’t even begun. The rise and fall of Brazil’s only female president shows how even the best-laid succession plans can go awry. She ultimately failed to live up to the high expectations set by Lula, lacking his political instincts or acumen.

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What could ultimately shape the career of the aspiring Mexican head of state are the crucial differences not only between the two women, but also between the countries they represent.

The fragmentation of Brazil’s Congress, which is made up of members from nearly 20 parties, meant that Rousseff had to rely on an unstable coalition government, but it was difficult to keep it on track when the economy and her approval ratings plummeted.

In Mexico, however, the Morena party founded by AMLO quickly became the dominant force in local politics. The ruling coalition currently controls both houses of parliament.

Although Mexico’s economy is showing signs of weakness toward the end of AMLO’s term, Sheinbaum is unlikely to face as great a challenge from lawmakers: Morena goes into this weekend’s elections aiming to win a two-thirds majority in both the lower house and the Senate, giving her a level of control over the federal government, including the power to push through constitutional changes, that even AMLO never had.

“Sheinbaum may not have a big governability problem and will have the support she needs,” said Valentina Sader, deputy director and Brazil lead at the Atlantic Council. “Congress may be an obstacle on larger projects like constitutional reform, but not so much on the day-to-day work of governing. The difference in terms of what Congress might look like could be crucial.”

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Read more: AMLO successor inherits weakening economy as Mexico’s spark dies

Brazilian analysts have long attributed many of Rousseff’s problems to her lack of government experience. The former anti-dictatorship activist once served as Lula’s chief of staff and energy minister, but before taking power in Latin America’s most populous country, she had never held elected office.

Sheinbaum, on the other hand, was mayor of a district of Mexico City that is home to around 700,000 people. She was then elected as the first woman to lead Mexico City, a position that put her in charge of one of the largest metropolises in the world.

“She has a political experience that Dilma did not have,” Prusa said. “Dilma had ministerial posts, but she was not political, and when the economy collapsed, she did not have the skills or the alliances – or even the realization that she needed alliances – to deal with it.”

Read more: The 10 challenges facing Mexico’s next president: QuickTake

None of this means Sheinbaum has an easy road ahead, however. Mexico’s ongoing public safety crisis, uncertain economy and the need for deep fiscal and other reforms pose risks from day one for the country’s next president. She will also likely face pressure from Morena’s own ranks over the direction of her government, especially if she wants to deviate from the policies that made AMLO successful.

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One of the biggest open questions is what role AMLO will play after his presidency ends. Lula largely faded into the background after leaving office, serving more as an informal adviser to Rousseff until he resurfaced in public as the target of corruption allegations in her final days.

Of course, Lula is back now. The Mexican constitution prohibits presidents from running for re-election – so that option is off the table for AMLO. He has promised to retire from politics altogether, but there are doubts that he will leave the spotlight so easily.

Sheinbaum thus bears the burden of being a female president on a continent where misogyny remains a central issue despite recent progress.

“She will definitely be judged as a woman,” Prusa said of Sheinbaum if she is elected. “Dilma made a lot of mistakes, but I think the consequences were harsher because she was a woman.”

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