Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Market Analysis 8/5, Vacation till 8/10 (approx).
I’m taking a brief vacation folks, I’ll be back Wednesday or so. Will try to aim to summarize today and the next few days at once for that reason.
TLDR of the day is: bitcoin up slightly, DXY up slightly (that has been the meme lately), yield inversion, SPY near top but not there yet, alts exploding, VIX up.
So, one thing that I find curious still is that DXY is going up as Bitcoin does lately, while Bitcoin dominance continues to bleed (and give alts more leeway). I have a feeling end of alt season is coming, but not before we see some insane levels of breakouts before we get a pullback. I’ll make this simple using HA candles because I like to rotate methods to prevent biases.
So for days, we have been maintaining this uptrend/downtrend. HA makes it pretty clear. I’m okay with HA for *trend*, I’m not okay with HA for exact price stuff.
Anyway, shortest form of macro is: We were bullish on 4h/1d for BTC, that has faded. It’s now neutral/no trend. Which means we could pivot soon (this weekend?) among others. That is yet to be determined, obviously. Which direction? Anyone’s fucking guess, but a move is coming soon. Anyone who claims to know is full of shit anyway.
We did indeed break down from one bear flag only to reject a second, but that’s not going to tell us if this is over or not. One reminder is the clock is ticking on miners, who are fucked. It’s just a question of how much Bitcoin Mara and Riot have to sell. If someone’s good with balance sheets, check every mining company.
We were trending bullish so yeah it’s reasonable to say that, but we have had no response to the rate hike changes that perspective. Thus, a weekly Macro perspective will continue below.
Weekly can be summed up as : getting uglier and uglier.
2 week can be summed up as : getting uglier and uglier.
But Ergo, people say. The alts are exploding! Yes, yes they are. As Bitcoin dominance is down, so likewise are alts regaining as much ground as possible.
Would I love for Bitcoin to go away forever? Yes. Perfect ploy to get people into crypto but remove BTC? Would be wonderful on so many levels but also awful on many others and leaves a lot of open questions. Everyone loses in that scenario, just like if BTC becomes currency. Yet everyone is going to want to quote Arthur Hayes as if he’s some genius for basically writing a lot of words and citing a lot of data that translate to “buy crypto”. This from the genius who is convicted of financial fraud, everybody. Who is writing *for* financial fraud. He just wants you as exit liquidity. He’s just as good to follow as Shkreli or Musk on economic analysis. Seriously, it’s almost comical that Hayes being a permabull in crypto is seen as genius and Musk being quoted in articles on being bearish in a bear market also being seen as genius. In the end, this is fools hoping to cling to fools.
I cut all my shit when I said I would, back at ~46k for BTC and never looked back. Because that’s what I said I would do and I did. The end.
Now it’s kinda sorta the time to look back, but it doesn’t mean I’m fully on top of wanting to come back yet. This market has no business going up, but I guess if it’s going to break up on every stupid pair under the sun, we’d be silly not to also follow along.
So what’s the simple answer for next week? Over/under 22.5k. Which happens to be right about where we’re at. Not because of that, but because of the 34EMA. Over is potentially bullish, under is explicitly bearish. Not that isn’t not 100% even, we’re waaaaay more bearish than bullish. What is somewhat bullish? Over $25k. What is fairly bullish? Over $33k. As you can tell, we have a looooong way to go.
I’m still going to ride LIT for a while *FOR FUN WITH DISPOSABLE INCOME* because LITBTC broke out (1d) and LITUSDT is about to, but that’s me trading technical indicators because I know what I’m doing. I’m comfortable enough with this to go on vacation. But remember folks, gravity exits and price moving up is moving against gravy here. So things come up, but the also come down.
I’ll try to post while I’m gone if I have a moment, but probably not before Monday.