WASHINGTON: The historic indictment of Donald Trump it’s a seismic moment for the 2024 US presidential campaign, but it’s impossible to predict whether the political earthquake will cause lasting damage or settle in his favor.
On Thursday a New York grand jury voted to indict the twice-impeached Republican leader, who is running for president again, for a $130,000 money scheme to silence a porn star who claimed a date with him in 2006.
Washington observers were laser-focused on the effect on Trump’s third bid for the White House — as Republicans united to denounce his indictment as a politically motivated attempt to derail his campaign.
But Trump supporters and critics have raised doubts about the legal merits of the case, which revolves around whether the payment to Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election counted as an illegal contribution to his campaign.
Detractors worry that if Trump were cleared — Democrat John Edwards defeated a similar prosecution in 2012 — it could make it easier to frame any future prosecution as a “witch hunt.”
And the charges will also likely be a turnout among Trump’s base, analysts say, catapulting him to victory in the race for the nomination, known as the presidential primary.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, seen as Trump’s main potential rival for the Republican nomination, denounced the indictment as “un-American” and a “weaponization of the legal system.”
DeSantis has also been careful in recent weeks to repeat the more salacious details of the case, joking that he didn’t “know what goes into paying money for a porn star.”
But don’t expect a flurry of Republicans to follow Trump’s example.
Nicholas Creel, a political analyst at Georgia College and State University, said Trump’s base in the “Grand Old Party” (GOP) was “simply too bought” to abandon him.
“Even now, we see Trump’s Republican competitors, like former Vice President Pence, actively defending him in this scandal instead of using it to attack him for their own gain,” he told AFP.
“This indicates that Trump’s GOP rivals fully understand how his base has an unwavering, cult-like devotion to him, one that isn’t letting up anytime soon.”
This loyalty was exemplified by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Kevin McCarthy, the first Republican in the House and second in line to the presidency, slammed Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, who pushed the criminal investigation against Trump.
Bragg “armed our sacred justice system against President Donald Trump,” McCarthy said.
A trio of House committee chairmen have asked Bragg to testify before lawmakers — a stunning intervention in an ongoing case — accusing him of pursuing “bogus” charges because Trump is running for president.
In the Senate, Trump loyalist Ted Cruza former presidential rival, said on his podcast that the prosecution “could be the biggest gift in kind to the Donald Trump campaign this entire cycle.”
On the left, figures like former White House strategist David Axelrod have characterized the hush money scandal as the least significant of Trump’s four criminal probes.
Nerves are said to be fraying in Trumpworld over potential racketeering and conspiracy charges in a far more consequential probe than the 76-year-old billionaire’s efforts to overturn the 2020 Georgia election results.
And a quasi-independent federal prosecutor is overseeing historic investigations into Trump’s mishandling of classified documents and involvement in the 2021 uprising by his supporters in the US Capitol.
“Trump being impeached must absolutely ruin his presidential aspirations. It must be. But based on the eternal support from his base, I don’t believe it,” Amani Wells-Onyioha, a Democratic election strategist, told the AFP.
“In fact, I think it will give him a boost in the polls and make his base rally around him even more.”
That said, the tide of Republican opinion is showing some signs of turning, even in the House, in the face of Trump’s mushrooming scandals.
Chip Roy, a right-wing lawmaker who endorsed DeSantis for president, called into conservative commentator Glenn Beck’s radio show last week to discuss what was then a possible impeachment of Trump.
“Look, at the end of the day, you can’t get away from the fact that the former president clearly paid a porn star to keep quiet right before the election,” the Republican said.
“Correct,” replied the host.
On Thursday a New York grand jury voted to indict the twice-impeached Republican leader, who is running for president again, for a $130,000 money scheme to silence a porn star who claimed a date with him in 2006.
Washington observers were laser-focused on the effect on Trump’s third bid for the White House — as Republicans united to denounce his indictment as a politically motivated attempt to derail his campaign.
But Trump supporters and critics have raised doubts about the legal merits of the case, which revolves around whether the payment to Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election counted as an illegal contribution to his campaign.
Detractors worry that if Trump were cleared — Democrat John Edwards defeated a similar prosecution in 2012 — it could make it easier to frame any future prosecution as a “witch hunt.”
And the charges will also likely be a turnout among Trump’s base, analysts say, catapulting him to victory in the race for the nomination, known as the presidential primary.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, seen as Trump’s main potential rival for the Republican nomination, denounced the indictment as “un-American” and a “weaponization of the legal system.”
DeSantis has also been careful in recent weeks to repeat the more salacious details of the case, joking that he didn’t “know what goes into paying money for a porn star.”
But don’t expect a flurry of Republicans to follow Trump’s example.
Nicholas Creel, a political analyst at Georgia College and State University, said Trump’s base in the “Grand Old Party” (GOP) was “simply too bought” to abandon him.
“Even now, we see Trump’s Republican competitors, like former Vice President Pence, actively defending him in this scandal instead of using it to attack him for their own gain,” he told AFP.
“This indicates that Trump’s GOP rivals fully understand how his base has an unwavering, cult-like devotion to him, one that isn’t letting up anytime soon.”
This loyalty was exemplified by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Kevin McCarthy, the first Republican in the House and second in line to the presidency, slammed Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, who pushed the criminal investigation against Trump.
Bragg “armed our sacred justice system against President Donald Trump,” McCarthy said.
A trio of House committee chairmen have asked Bragg to testify before lawmakers — a stunning intervention in an ongoing case — accusing him of pursuing “bogus” charges because Trump is running for president.
In the Senate, Trump loyalist Ted Cruza former presidential rival, said on his podcast that the prosecution “could be the biggest gift in kind to the Donald Trump campaign this entire cycle.”
On the left, figures like former White House strategist David Axelrod have characterized the hush money scandal as the least significant of Trump’s four criminal probes.
Nerves are said to be fraying in Trumpworld over potential racketeering and conspiracy charges in a far more consequential probe than the 76-year-old billionaire’s efforts to overturn the 2020 Georgia election results.
And a quasi-independent federal prosecutor is overseeing historic investigations into Trump’s mishandling of classified documents and involvement in the 2021 uprising by his supporters in the US Capitol.
“Trump being impeached must absolutely ruin his presidential aspirations. It must be. But based on the eternal support from his base, I don’t believe it,” Amani Wells-Onyioha, a Democratic election strategist, told the AFP.
“In fact, I think it will give him a boost in the polls and make his base rally around him even more.”
That said, the tide of Republican opinion is showing some signs of turning, even in the House, in the face of Trump’s mushrooming scandals.
Chip Roy, a right-wing lawmaker who endorsed DeSantis for president, called into conservative commentator Glenn Beck’s radio show last week to discuss what was then a possible impeachment of Trump.
“Look, at the end of the day, you can’t get away from the fact that the former president clearly paid a porn star to keep quiet right before the election,” the Republican said.
“Correct,” replied the host.