NEW DELHI: India will receive “normal” rainfall this monsoon season, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting company said Tuesday, adding that rainfall will be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The long period average for June to September period is 880.6mm, based on the average between 1961-2010. Normal rainfall is categorized as between 96-104% of LPA. Last year, monsoon precipitation was 99% of LPA in the “normal” category and in 2020, monsoon precipitation was 109% of LPA in the “above normal” category.
“The last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nia events. Earlier, La Nia had begun to shrink sharply in winters, but its fallback has stopped at the expense of strengthening trade winds. Although past its peak, La Nia will Nia’s cooling of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail until shortly before the start of the southwest monsoon, so the occurrence of El Nio, which normally destroys the monsoon, is ruled out. that it will happen abruptly and intensely rain, alternated by abnormally long dry periods, “said Skymet Weather director Jatin Singh in a statement.
“We do not want to comment on the forecast of a private company. IMD will make a detailed monsoon forecast at a press conference in mid-April, which will be our first monsoon forecast to be updated by June,” said India Meteorological Department (IMD) director General M Mohapatra.
“We have had two years of La Nia conditions disappearing now. There is a gradual warming over eastern equatorial Pacific. La Niña years are associated with good monsoon and we had two consecutive years of normal and above normal monsoon in respectively. 2021 and 2020. But in June at the beginning of the monsoon ENSO neutral (Still El Niño or La Nia) conditions are likely, which is also favorable for a normal monsoon.The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that El Nio conditions will not develop until the end of the monsoon, which is why we expect very good rains in June and July during the seed season for shrimp crops, however, rains may decrease only slightly in August and September, said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of the forecasting company.
In June and July, Skymet Weather expects precipitation to be 107% of LPA and 100% of LPA respectively, while in August and September they expect 95% and 90% of LPA respectively.
Indian Ocean dipole (the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas) is neutral, with a negative tendency closer to the threshold margins, Skymet Weather said in their statement, adding that negative IOD is not favorable for a good monsoon. “This could potentially lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution,” the statement added.
In terms of geographical risks, Skymet expects that Rajasthan and Gujarat along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura of the northeastern region have the risk of raining all season.
Kerala and northern interior Karnataka are likely to receive less rainfall during the nuclear monsoon months of July and August, the forecast said.
“Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, the agricultural basin of northern India, and areas with rainfall of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will be witnessing above normal rainfall. The first half of the season is expected to be better than the last. Monsoon will likely make a decent start in early June, “the statement added.
La Nia refers to the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, along with changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, namely wind, pressure and precipitation. It usually has the opposite effect on weather and climate as El Nio, which is the hot phase of the so-called El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO has a major impact on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rainfall, floods and droughts. In India, for example, El Nio is associated with dry or weak monsoon, while La Nia is associated with a strong monsoon and above-average rainfall and colder winters.
The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is crucial for the agriculture of the country, which is one of the pillars of its economy. Monsoon encourages farm products and improves rural spending.
Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60% of the net built-up area of the country, which has no irrigation.